Thursday, August 11, 2011

Top Bad/Cold Weather QBs

I was asked recently to put together an analysis tracking the stats necessary to determine the best bad/cold weather QB. Before I go any further let me start by saying that this task is very difficult. Bad/Cold weather is subjective, so I had to draw a line in the…uh…snow. Since 32 degrees Fahrenheit is freezing, that’s as good a line as any. So ye...ah, I threw snow games in there. Ultimately, I settled on the following criteria: (1) Played in November, December, & January; (2) Played in cold-weather cities- Baltimore, Boston, Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Green Bay, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Washington; and (3) With a temp of 32 degrees or colder at kickoff, winds 15 mph or higher and/or with gusts to at least 25 mph or any mention of snow, ice, or freezing rain during the game.See More
As information sources I used the weather conditions listed in the NFL Gamebooks for games played from 2001-2010 and the game logs from the pro-football-reference site for the same timeframe. In most cases, hourly weather information was available, which allowed me to pinpoint conditions no matter what time of day the games started.
The analysis is missing the occasional September monsoon (such as Pittsburgh's 13-3 win over Miami in September 2004), the infrequent October snow game (such as New England's 59-0 win over Tennessee in October 2009) and the rare cold-weather game in a southern city. Regardless, I believe I've captured the overwhelming majority of bad/cold weather games played since 2001 and now give you the top 5 bad/cold weather QBs (minimum 8 games):

  1. Tom Brady - 19-2
  2. Donovan McNabb - 10-1
  3. Kyle Orton - 7-2
  4. Ben Roethlisberger - 16-5
  5. Aaron Rodgers - 5-4

Other QBs, such as Drew Bledsoe, had very good records (in fact, Bledsoe was actually 2nd best when I went back and checked all his numbers), but I decided to keep it to current players. If there are any questions, I'll be glad to try and answer them, though I admit that I've already forgotten most of the wins/losses specifically. The only loss that stands out in my mind is Big Ben's loss to Cleveland in '09 (13-6), and that's because it was his first loss there. I have some blog ideas in mind that I'll be discussing with Jayden once she recovers and isn't loopy from the drugs anymore. Until then, Grease for Peace.