Ryan Shazier's Bold Prediction: Super Bowl In Steelers' Near Future?

The Pittsburgh Steelers first-round draft pick Ryan Shazier is already making quite an impression. Not all of it may being so good. 

As the Steelers OTAs began Tuesday, Shazier lined up as first team Mack linebacker, with his speed and aggressiveness turning heads. However, not all have appreciated his aggressive play. Ask recently-returned center Maurkice Pouncey.  

“I didn’t want to break rule No. 10,” said Pouncey, referring to coach Mike Tomlin’s edict which forbids fighting.

He said this because, as reported by Chris Bradford of TimesOnline.com, "Shazier threw down C Maurkice Pouncey during a drill." He tried to "make amends," but Pouncey wasn't having it." -  http://tinyurl.com/n6svq3t

Shazier, buddy, c'mon. Love the aggression, but we can't have Pouncey hurt...again. 

But the impetus of this article is born of a tweet by Shazier (@RyanShazier on Twitter) on Monday when he portended great things for the city of Pittsburgh when he wrote that within "5 years" the Steelers, Penguins and Pirates would all win a championship in their respective sports. 

Leaving the Pens and Bucs to hockey and baseball blogs, the question needs to be asked of the erstwhile Pittsburgh Pirates: Are the Steelers close to reaching and winning another Super Bowl?

First off, I think we have to acknowledge that winning a Super Bowl title involves a healthy dose of good fortune as well as skill. We all agree there? Good. 

That said, back in February of this year, If It Ain't Steel laid out what we believed were the seven musts for this offseason. In it we wrote, among other things, that the Steelers need to make sure to have few changes on offense. Because, make no mistake, the offense wasn't the problem. -  http://ifitaintsteel.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-seven-musts-for-steelers-2014.html

Sure, things started off badly as the offense was anemic early on. There were a plethora of turnovers - nine in the first four games by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger alone - and no offensive line to speak of - just 1,383 yards rushing, easily their fewest in a 16-game season at only 3.51 yards per carry.

Most all of this was early, however, and it turned around to the Steelers advantage in the second half of the season. 

Only the Carolina Panthers (7-1) had a better second-half record than the Steelers (6-2). To accomplish that, they scored 28.2 point average over the final nine games, they went from a -11 in turnovers in the first four games alone to +7 over the final eight, they allowed just seven sacks in the final seven games, they were a more efficient offense going 14-for-20 (touchdowns) in the red zone in the final six games, and they committed to the run more culminating in 461 yards gained with a 4.0 YPC average in the final four games. 

Not that the offense will just hit the ground running and automatically beat everyone 28-17, especially with the loss of wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery and the addition of WR Lance Moore and also of running back LaGarrette Blount. By no means, though, is the offense the problem and won't ultimately be the reason this team fails. 

Unfortunately the same cannot be said about the defensive side of the ball.

The Steelers' porous defense surrendered 17 plays of 40 yards or more, including 11 of over 50 yards, last season. Five of those those 17 plays were runs, two of which being by quarterbacks. 

There is no way that can continue if the Steelers want to be successful. 

We have seen what a brutal, intimidating and opportunistic defense has done for the Steelers in the (recent) past, and we saw what such a defense did for the Seattle Seahawks this past season.

Having a high-powered offense can only get you so far. Just ask the Denver Broncos. Or the 2007 New England Patriots. Or almost any of the top offenses that have faced the top defenses in the Big Game. 

Even in this pass-happy, fantasy football-driven NFL, defense still wins championships. And the Steelers must successfully rebuild their unit into a dominant one if they want to be considered Super Bowl contenders again.

There is good news and bad news, however, when it comes to turning around those pathetic statistics and results. The bad news is that upgrading the defense isn't a quick fix. There were holes to fill everywhere - in the defensive line, in the linebacking corps and in the secondary. 

The good news is that the Steelers defense still has good players and very good coaches, although it is far from a Super Bowl-contending unit. But, even though it's too early to say definitively, via free agency and the NFL Draft, GM Kevin Colbert and company have seemingly brought together the appropriate pieces.

Finally, though we won't discuss it in detail here, the last thing that shouldn’t be overlooked is Special Teams. The return game is an area the Steelers are continually lacking, but which can only be benefitted by the addition of rookie Dri Archer. 

Well, was Shazier's prognostication valid and potentially accurate? 

It still may be a couple of years before the Steelers can call themselves Super Bowl contenders or even champions again, but that five-year window is certainly attainable. Why? The aforementioned Super Bowl champion Seahawks had back-to-back 7-9 seasons in 2010 and 2011. It is absolutely feasible. 

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TIDBITS: Cam Thomas started at left defensive end opposite Cam Heyward during the first OTAs. Thomas will play both LDE and NT, much like Al Woods and Chris Hoke before him. Heyward is coming off a very good year - 59 tackles (35 solo), 30 QB pressures, 8 passes defended, 5 sacks and a fumble recovery. 

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Markus Wheaton opened OTAs as the starting X receiver opposite Antonio Brown. He naturally has the inside track on the job, as that is why he was draft last year. 

"There are a lot of us chasing that spot," a humble Wheaton conceded. "It’s not mine. There’s a lot of good competition." The 5'11", 189-pound WR ran a 4.4/40 at the 2013 Combine.

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ROLB Jarvis Jones said he hasn't really gained many actual pounds, but that he is much stronger and that he studied hard to be ready for the new season. 

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According to the a Tribune-Review's Mark Kaboly, the NFL’s transactions wire said that the Steelers were awarded former Alabama corner Deion Belue (5'11"/182 LBs) on waivers from Miami on Wednesday.

Belue was a two-season starter for the Crimson Tide, notching 60 tackles, breaking up 10 passes and recording three interceptions.

Steelers waived offensive tackle Kaycee Ike.

If It Ain't Steel's 2013 NFL Not-So-Midseason Reports, MVP and Super Bowl Predictions

by Jayden and Jason

The NFL season is now past the midway point and we at If It Ain’t Steel are once again throwing our two cents in to the 'midseason awards and predictions' hat.

(Aside: We were down for approximately two weeks and missed getting this out after Week 9 or 10 at the latest. The choices, though, are no different now from what they were a week ago.)

Week 11 is in the books and we're now at a crucial point for a lot teams. It's the time of year when the cream rises to the top individually and as teams are concerned. 

Without further ado, let's just get into the midseason awards and predictions for 2013. We'll start off with...

Comeback Player of the Year: Running Back LeSean McCoy, Eagles, or Outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, Ravens - McCoy leads the league in rushing yards (1,009), averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and in total yards from scrimmage (1,408), touching the ball 247 times, all of this after missing four games and only rushing for 840 yards last season.

But If It Ain't Steel's choice for the midseason winner and the season-award prediction is Terrell Suggs. Suggs suffered a partially torn Achilles tendon requiring surgery in the Spring of 2012, sidelining him for the first six games of the season and causing him to miss a total of eight games. He was largely ineffective and finished the season with just two sacks

Fast forward to 2013 and a fully recovered Suggs is wreaking havoc once again. He is tied for 6th in the NFL in sacks with nine (in 10 games) and has 65 tackles, which is 26 more than the NFL sack leader Robert Mathis - keep that name in mind for later.

Coach of the Year: Andy Reid, Chiefs - Andy Reid is the only one in the discussion. The one-loss Chiefs have already improved upon its win total from 2012 of 2-14. The NFL record for win improvement from one season to the next is 10 (the Colts from 3-13 in '98 to 13-3 in '99, and the Dolphins from 1-15 in '07 to 11-5 in '08). Reid and his team are well on their way to breaking that record. At 9-1 they are tied atop the AFC West with the Broncos and could easily make it to 13-3 or better in the regular season and could go a long way in the playoffs - earning Reid the award in the process.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Outside linebacker Alec Ogletree, Rams, or middle linebacker Kiko Alonso - With 65 tackles, 55 solo, six passes defended, three forced fumbles and a 98-yard interception return for a touchdown, Ogletree is definitely in the consideration for defensive rookie honors.

But our choice for the midseason winner and the season-award prediction is Kiko Alonso. Alonso, the second-round pick out of Oregon, leads his team with 112 tackles (including amassing a very impressive 22 tackles in a loss to the Bengals), leads them in interceptions with four (which is also tied for second in the NFL), has four passes defended and both a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. More worthy candidates could emerge over the next few weeks, like Sheldon Richardson or even our pre-draft favorite Kenny Vacarro, but Alonso is the current leader in the clubhouse.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Quarterback Geno Smith, Jets, or running back Eddie Lacy, Packers - The talented West Virginia product has the requisite tools to be a starter and star in the NFL. Smith was thrown into a difficult situation when Mark Sanchez went down for the season and has played well, leading the Jets to a 5-5 record so far after the team was 6-10 all of last season.

But the one we've chosen as the midseason winner and the season-award prediction is Eddie Lacy. Coming out of Alabama, there were concerns about Lacy: he had injury issues, he had bigger numbers against lesser opponents and he was the beneficiary of an NFL-caliber offensive line in college. Well, he's silenced his critics, yours truly included, and has become the main back in the Packers offense. He leads all NFL rookies with 696 yards rushing and a 4.0 yard average. While there's still time for him to be caught, say maybe by DeAndre Hopkins, he has a strong hold on the lead for now.

Defensive Player of the Year: Free Safety Earl Thomas, Seahawks, or DE/OLB Robert Mathis - Thomas is the "Road Runner", because when he catches you you're through! (Thank you, John Gruden.) He has 78 tackles this season to along with seven passes defended, four interceptions and two forced fumbles. According to his coach, also, the 2012 All-Pro is just hitting his stride. "There's no end to the potential Earl has," said Pete Carroll, "because he's so fast and he's so tough, but more than that, he's just so driven to be great."

Even with such a résumé, though, our midseason winner and the season-award prediction goes to Robert Mathis. The 6'2" 245-pound Mathis has been a strong-side defender throughout his career. Now with the switch to 3-4 defense, Mathis is the primary rush LB and doesn't have to set the edge and so just pins his ears back and attacks. Because the position change has buoyed his sack total, Mathis no longer has a pre-game meal - he simply eats left tackles for lunch. With 13.5 sacks, three forced fumbles and a safety, Mathis is in good position for 21.5 sacks - a career-high - and DPOY award.

Offensive Player of the Year: RB Jamaal Charles, Chiefs, or QB Peyton Manning, Broncos - Charles is all over the field. He runs the ball, catches passes out of the backfield, plays the option (w/QB Alex Smith) and even runs the Wildcat. He is the key to the Chiefs' offense.

However, our choice for the midseason winner and the season-award prediction needs no introduction. Peyton Manning has been nothing short of brilliant all season. Seeing Joe Flacco's image all over Peyton's city before the NFL's opening Thursday Night Kickoff caused this Bronco to stampede the Ravens and then never looked back. With a 118.3 QB Rating, almost 12 points higher than the next passer, a 69.9% completion rate, and 34 touchdown passes against only six INTs (a near 6-1 ratio), Manning just may get the award that eluded him last season. If so...

MVP: QB Peyton Manning, Broncos - Yes, Cam Newton, Calvin Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Drew Brees are in the discussion, but it may be against the Law to choose anyone but The Sheriff this season. His numbers are better across the board over every other QB in the league and he's poised to break Tom Brady's record of 50 TD passes set in the 2007 season, on a pace for 54. He isn't just the best player on the best team, he is the captain that drives the wagon train - they won't arrive at their destination in February without him. You don't get much more valuable than that.

Super Bowl prediction:

A few years ago, this would have been a prediction for the AFC Championship game. Now it's the final game. And while the 49ers, Patriots and Bengals may have something to say about it, Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos.

Three months of football are in the books, and in three more months we'll know how many of these will have come to fruition. Until then.

Offense And Roethlisberger Still Key To Steelers Eventual Success

"I think that being familiar and getting a certain amount of exposure to it, it's going to bring comfort. But we can't relax in that comfort. We have to continue to move forward as a unit. I thought we did some good things, particularly initially. I thought we waned down the stretch. I look forward to putting the pieces together and trying to be the best we can be in 2013." - Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin on Todd Haley's first season as offensive coordinator and the offense evolving this season.

As the team wades through the free agency waters and preparations continue for the 2013 NFL season, the focus for most is on whether enough will be done to rebound for a playoff appearance. Even this blog tackled this subject and declared that the Steelers are in for a rebuilding year. However, one thing is certain: if quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and offensive coordinator Todd Haley continue to get into that "comfort" zone, the Steelers have a shot.

Haley's offense is predicated on two main concepts. Firstly, he wants his unit to go on sustained drives that kill the clock and, in doing so, keeps his defense and the opposing offense off of the field. When done successfully, thus inhibits the opponent's ability to score points of their own. Secondly, he wants the running game to set up the passing game.

Both of those were being accomplished early in the season. As we pointed out in a previous blog, the offense did work early on. Its failings were directly associated with injuries (especially to that of Big Ben and the offensive line), a limited running game, dropped passes, fumbles and interceptions. In the first nine games of the season, the team was 6-3, was scoring 23.0 points per game, was just -1 in turnover differential and was averaging 103.8 rushing yards per game.



The Steelers' offense was one of the most efficient in the league. By a large margin, it led the NFL in third-down conversions and in time of possession. Big Ben was leading the NFL in third-down passing and was on pace for having one of the best seasons of his career.

Then came the injury in that week nine game against the Kansas City Chiefs. He would miss three and a half games total and has admitted that, not only did he return to the field too soon, he didn't have the same confidence in himself and his game.

"Sometimes, certain passes just weren't right. I didn't trust myself to get enough zip on it to throw it out there. I tried to guide it too much instead of just throw it." - http://tinyurl.com/bwtvwoo

Fast forward to March of 2013 and faces among the crowd have changed. His left tackle, running back, his big-play target and his tight end (for a while anyway) are all gone. But he hasn't let that deter his outlook.

"You never like to see anybody leave. But I'm pretty sure there's never been in the history of this sport the exact same team come back two years in a row.... I have confidence [the front office will] get guys in here who will be ready to compete and play," Big Ben said.

That being the case, the replacement of those missing faces is paramount. Because, as good as the defense was again last season, the offense steers this ship. Make no mistake, the NFL wants more scoring and its rules favor that end. Want proof?

Over the last five seasons (2008-2012) the NFL teams with the fewest yards per game allowed were the Steelers ('08: 237.2 YPG), the Jets ('09: 252.3 YPG), the Chargers ('10: 271.6 YPG), the Steelers ('11: 271.8 YPG) and the Steelers ('12: 275.8 YPG).

Did you notice the trend? The yards allowed increased each year over that period. The fewest points per game allowed during that same time frame also increased, going from 13.9 PPG (the '08 Steelers) to 15.3 PPG (the '12 Seattle Seahawks). Yet, only two of those teams turned those accomplishments into Super Bowl appearances: the Steelers (twice).

So replacing the missing pieces, limiting turnovers and being more efficient in executing the offense are the conglomerate key - a key still turned by Big Ben. Which he can do, along with Haley, if he lets it happen. Something that someone familiar with Haley says he can and should do.

Kurt Warner, former NFL quarterback who played under Haley had quite a bit to say regarding the benefits that can be had by Big Ben. He said, in part, that Big Ben needs to ask himself, "‘Why are we doing this? How does this benefit me? How does this play to my strengths?' If the offense didn't play to his strengths, I think it would be tough to ever buy in. But I do believe it plays to his strengths.” - http://triblive.com/sports/nfl/3406657-74/warner-offense-roethlisberger#axzz2JWrlKYRm

Taking the offense and embracing it is essential. His gaining a greater understanding of the offense, and they of each other as Tomlin alluded to, will lead to success. As it is, most of the so-called tension between the two was media driven. But you still have two stubborn, A-personality individuals here, both of whom want to win - tensions, especially in a season where expectations went unfulfilled, were bound to rise.

In essence, they need to make sure that they solidify their professional relationship, straighten up and fly right and determine the direction they want to go, which one the navigator is and which one is the pilot. (Just cool down, papa Ben, don't blow your top.)

Big Ben will be playing behind potentially the youngest offensive line in the NFL next season. Warner also faced a similar situation during Haley's tenure. How did he handle it?

“When we were together, we threw the ball down the field a lot. But we complemented that with a lot of the short-passing game — and we were limited at our offensive line position," Warner also said. “It was understood, ‘Hey, we can't just drop back seven steps and try to wing the ball down the field all the time.'"

Before Big Ben's injury, he was on pace for the fewest sacks of his career (23 in 2005), and still ended up being sacked "only" 30 times. The real difference in this is that he suffered the fewest sacks per pass attempt in his career (6.3%). So the 'tweaking' of things has helped in that at least.

It needs to continue. Adding a productive run game will help facilitate that, and will help facilitate winning in general. As a comparison, including the playoff games against the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens, the New England Patriots were 13-1 when rushing for 100 yards, yet they were 0-4 when held under 100 yards. Tom Brady's sack-per-pass-attempt ratio was also a low (4.1%). So the running game is still important. And Ray Graham of Pitt wants to feel important. - http://tinyurl.com/cx23jg3

This is still, though, a quarterback-driven league and your franchise must be protected - even from himself.

“They can eliminate hits and then they can take chances down the field, which is what Ben is so good at,” Warner said. “(The short passes) eliminate the risk factor of him having to get hit over and over again."

Not only that, but Warner summed it all up better than we could by what he said next.

"Not just the risk factor for Ben but the risk factor for the team that when Ben doesn't play, this team is a different team.”

That they are.

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TIDBITS: Speaking of quarterbacks... There was the one that got away: http://sulia.com/channel/pittsburgh-steelers/f/4d2fe802-4363-464b-b001-6dfa7bdd8c1a/?source=twitter

And the one yet to visit...Tulane QB Ryan Griffin: http://tinyurl.com/cezzkpc

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With the new helmet rule, should the Steelers forget drafting a running back in the first round? - http://tinyurl.com/bt9dzbs

If It Ain't Steel's 2012 NFL Awards and Super Bowl Predictions

by Jayden Matthews

The NFL regular season has now ended and the debate can truly begin as to whom will win the yearly awards as well as which teams will take the coveted ultimate prize - the Super Bowl.

We at If It Ain’t Steel wrote a piece mid-season where we made predictions for the season awards based on what we knew then. Now that the season has shown us everything, we are going to follow that up to see if it has changed any and to make our official prognostications. Then, when the awards are announced, you can refer back to this to see if we hit it on the head (or, if Jason was wrong), and also if our Super Bowl prediction holds up. - http://ifitaintsteel.blogspot.com/2012/11/nfl-mid-season-grades.html

The MVP Award: We predicted that Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning would win this in our mid-season article, and that has not changed. Though, there is a candidate who ended up making a good case for himself: Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson. A.P., also known as A.D. for "All Day", cemented himself in the Most Valuable Player talk with a monster year. After coming back from an ACL (anterior cruciate ligament) and MCL (medial collateral ligament) injury that some thought would sideline him for some of the season, A.P. did not miss a single game and coming within nine yards of the recognized single-season NFL rushing record. - http://tinyurl.com/a6d6tro

We still believe Peyton, "The Sheriff", has the edge because, like A.P., he came back from what some considered a career-ending injury. Some, myself included, didn't think The Sheriff would make it much past the first game, let alone all season. But he did far more than that, he led the Broncos to a 13-3 season and the first seed in the AFC Playoff chase. The Sheriff played the way he always played, deadly lethal, again making household names out of ordinary receivers. For those reasons, we believe that Peyton “The Sheriff” Manning will deservedly win the MVP award.

As for A.P., we still believe that, though this and the MVP awards could ultimately be flipped, "Purple Jesus" has the Comeback Player of the Year award...all day.

Defensive Player of the Year: We predicted the Houston Texans J.J. Watt at the mid-season and that, like our MVP, hasn’t changed. San Francisco 49ers outside linebacker Aldon Smith was building a good resume, but in the end we still believe it will be Watt. He led the league with 20.5 sacks, had 81 tackles, 16 passes defensed (which is more than some defensive backs), four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and a partridge in a pear tree. Though the Texans Defense struggled down the stretch, the AFC's Defensive Player of the Month for December didn’t. He may even be more feared right now than Clay Matthews...no quarterback wants to see No. 99 coming for them right now.

Coach of the Year: We really didn’t make a choice on this one because there seemed to be a lot of good choices at the time. Arguably, one could say that Indianapolis Colts "interim-head coach" Bruce Arians deserves consideration, naturally, though, he won’t get it because he is still just an offensive coordinator. If he could be, though, he would be my (Jayden's) clear cut choice. What Arians was able to do with the Colts, to keep them winning in the absence of their head coach Chuck Pagano as he battled cancer, is nothing short of amazing. No one really give the Colts a chance once Pagano went out, but Arians took the bull by the horns and led them to a winning season and a playoff spot. Even his former team's (former) players admit he's a good coach. Way to go Brucey!!! - http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/bears/post/_/id/4681828/spaeth-arians-helps-qbs-succeed

So, while there are only a few truly viable choices, this even put my partner-in-crime and I in a quandary of as to who should get the nod. So, we are each going to make our individual cases for who we think will win.

Jayden: John Fox I believe John Fox is the best choice for Coach of the Year. He took the Broncos from 8-8 last year to 13-3 this year and in the playoffs again. Yes, my partner argues that it was because of Peyton, and we both do say that Peyton makes any coach look great. While that is true, I still just think that he deserves the nod. Even though he has Peyton now, he still had to provide Peyton a dominant defense as a compliment in order to have a chance at the last dance. To his credit, he has done that. He has slowly built a great team in Denver that keeps a smile on John Elway’s face. Therefore, I believe he deserves that nod and should get it. Peyton doesn’t may not need coaching, but the rest of the players do.

Jason: My choice for the coaching award is, once again, Mike Smith of the Atlanta Falcons. But, I admit that his winning it in 2008 may put a damper on this prediction. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, there have been only been six repeat winners (Chuck Knox{3x}, Joe Gibbs, Mike Ditka, Bill Parcells, Dan Reeves and Bill Belichick {3x}), but I believe his team's consistant performance all season, pulling them up from an average 2011, gets "Smitty" the trophy this season.

Rookie of the Year: Andrew Griffith 1.5 - No, we didn’t have a clear cut choice then and we still don’t now that the season is over. RGIII and Luck are arguably the best rookies to come into the NFL at the same time in a long time. At the quarterback position at the very least. Both are playing very well and both will be in the playoffs this year as the 4th and 5th seeds in their respective conferences. So, we still are at a quandry over coming to a clear choice because an entire article could be written making a case for either of them. Not to mention the fact that another emerged as a solid choice, the rookie playing for the Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson.

Wilson has also played well enough to be in consideration for this honor. And oh, yeah, he has his team in the playoffs as well. So, with that being said, we're going to go out on a limb and say that the 2012 NFL Rookie of the Year will be Russell Luck III. We know it's a bit of a cop out, but we have no idea which one of these guys will win it.

That now brings us to our Super Bowl prediction, which naturally will not involve a repeat champion considering the Giants missed the playoffs. With the Pittsburgh Steelers also on early vacation, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger cannot participate in helping keep the streak alive of one of only three teams representing the AFC in the big show. However, while the Colts and the New England Patriots are in the playoffs, Manning is with Denver now. There is still a chance that either he or the Patriots Tom Brady, the other two QBs in this streak, could be in the Super Bowl and we believe the streak will remain intact.

We chose the Texans and the Chicago Bears as our early picks, and that has definitely changed. The Bears took a turn for the worse and missed the playoffs, and while the Texans at the time were arguably the best team in the AFC, they are not anymore. The Texans were sitting pretty in the No. 1 spot for a long time, but fell down to the third seed in the AFC and now may have to take their act on the road. We believe the Denver Broncos will come out of the AFC and that The Sheriff will fire his six-gun all the way to New Orleans and could walk away with another piece of jewelry in the process. On that, we agreed. The NFC, not so much.

As stated earlier, there will be a new team emblem on the NFC side of the Super Bowl ensign. My partner and I have once again disagreed on who that will be. Shocking, I know. So we are going to again make our case just like with coach of the year.

Jayden: I think the Seattle Seahawks will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They are playing lights out right now and have a very good defense. They have been on a tear as of late with Wilson and Marshawn Lynch going all "Beast Mode" on defenses. The though that they could not win on the road has been laid to rest with wins over Buffalo and Chicago. They have a ball-hawking secondary that can pick you off or force a team to fumble and are poised to make a strong run and make it to the big show. I know I may be wrong on this, but I like the Seahawks chances.

Jason: As long as Justin Smith is on the field, the defense of the San Francisco 49ers and the Colin Kaepernick-led offense will take them to The Big Easy. Linebackers Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith get more of the publicity, but defensive tackle Justin Smith is the glue to their front seven that solidifies a bruising and stingy unit. Add to that a running game led by Frank Gore, and the 49ers should see their first NFC Championship and Super Bowl berth since 1994.

There you have it, If It Ain't Steel's final 2012 season award and Super Bowl predictions. Come February 4th, we'll see how many of our prophecies came true.

HINES WARD : HALL OF FAMER?

Written by Jason Robinson

  The image is etched in my memory: Ben Roethlisberger gets the ball from Jeff Hartings the center, turns right and pitches back left to Fast Willie Parker. It's a sweep left and the Seattle Seahawks have to respect Parker's speed. As Parker runs he hands the ball to Antwaan Randle El on the Reverse and, with help from a key block from Roethlisberger, Randle El throws the ball to an open Hines Ward for the touchdown. Ward skipped into the end zone, smiling as he always does, sealing the victory in Super Bowl XL. Ring number five, one for the thumb. Hines Ward was the MVP with five catches for 123 yards and a touchdown, plus one rush for 18 yards, and it was the first time I truly gave thought to his being a candidate for the Hall of Fame.

    Since then Ward has been the real man of steel as one of the Steelers truest leaders and unquestioned captain of the wide receivers. His play over the years has caused him to have virtually every Steelers receiving record. The only Steelers' records he doesn't have are receptions in a single game, receiving yards in a season, receiving yards in a game and 100-yard games in a season. All the important numbers, though, he has. He even has the hardware: two Rings in three Super Bowl appearences, including the aforementioned MVP award. So he's an all-time great from a Steelers standpoint, but the real question is whether he makes the HOF or not.


    When I think of someone worthy of the Hall of Fame I think of someone truly great. Like Peter King once said, "This isn't the Hall of Very Good." Well said, and well received. Well, then, what is "great?" We could use the dictionary definition for the word, but for these purposes it essentially means someone who is or does something that is large or prodigious in proportion, has significant impact, value and worth, has influence on others and leaves behind some form of legacy. In the case of the NFL, it would also mean being the best for a period of time. That means we can't just look at numbers. You can skew numbers to fit whatever you want. I could throw Terrell Owen's numbers at you and present them in such a way to make you think he's the greatest thing since Stretch Armstrong. *sigh* I miss that toy. It was just so cool! Stretch him all around anything I wanted. But I digress... Anyway, the truth is that Owens has great numbers to be sure, but he also has been a pariah wherever he has played. He's torn teams apart and, on top of that, you never had to worry about your popcorn in the playoffs because he's never won a significant playoff game. So is he truly great? No.

    Not that the HOF necessarily takes character into consideration, but being arrested for Cocaine possession, i.e. Michael Irvin, is something that happens outside of the game. Derailing and/or breaking teams up, though, directly deals with the game itself. So that means that one such as the aforementioned Owens would fail when graded against that particular criterium. Does Ward? How, in fact, does Ward fair against the criteria set up in general? As I alluded to before, numbers are only one part of this. In fact, as far as I'm concerned, he has the numbers to warrant having his smiling bust in Canton despite never being the absolute best any given year. So let's look at the proposed definition and go from there.

    Part of the definition proposed was "someone who is or does something prodigious in proportion." Hines Ward has certainly had a prodigious career as he holds all of the most significant of Steelers receiving records as was mentioned before. He has been a key component to reaching the playoffs 7 of the last 10 years and to reaching the Super Bowl three times in six years. He is a four-time Pro Bowler, a Super Bowl MVP and still one of the best blocking WRs in the League.

    Another criteria put forth was one's impact, value and worth. The "impact" Ward has had on players over the years is well documented. Ed Reed found this out in a 2004 when he wasn't paying close enough attention to his surroundings and was knocked out cold by a legal block by Ward. So clean and devastating was the blow that Ward immediately signaled to the Ravens' sideline for them to come get him. If it had been a cartoon there would have been little birds flying around Reed's head. After the game Reed was asked what he thought of the hit. He said, "(snore)". Then there was the, again, legal block on Keith Rivers in '08. Rivers also neglected to keep his head on a swivel as to what was going on in his vicinity and paid for it. The block so jolted Rivers that it broke his jaw. You can find Rivers at the downtown Cincinnati Jamba Juice drinking his dinner if you want to ask him his thoughts on Hines Ward's blocking ability. I bring these examples up because they and others resulted in a rules change by the NFL that is affectionately (ahem) referred to as "The Hines Ward Rule." That, ladies and gentlemen, is impact. The value and worth part of that is simple: he's incredibly valuable to his team as he not only does whatever is needed for his team to win, but they see that this is the case and have voted him captain or team MVP multiple times.


    The influence and legacy that Ward will leave behind is summed up in a series of names: Burress, Randle El, Holmes, Wallace, and, soon to surely be added, Sanders and Brown. All of whom are at least Super Bowl participants and two have Super Bowl game-winning touchdown catches. His influence on them is great. These receivers to a man have spoken extremely highly of Ward and his influence, work ethic and leadership on the field and in the locker room. He is greatly respected and admired as a football player and as a man. When I watch NFL Films replays of practices, games or otherwise and I see the other receivers standing there listening to him as if to a father, I can't help but to smile. When the word "honor" is used in conjunction with Hines Ward, it isn't contextually, "Yes, Your Honor." The honor, admiration and respect for Ward is real and is boundless. Even when opposing players hate him, they still have to respect him. That, my friends, is greatness.

    So, yeah, I could have thrown out stat after stat to make a case for Hines Ward to don a yellow jacket, but he's greater than the sum of his parts. Pure stats don't do him justice, because he's a Hall of Famer on and off the field. Will he get in on the first ballot? I'd have to say no, but I believe that a Hall of Famer is simply a Hall of Famer. So expect to see him up on that podium, oh, sometime in early 2020's. But expect him nonetheless.