If It Ain't Steel's 2013 NFL Not-So-Midseason Reports, MVP and Super Bowl Predictions

by Jayden and Jason

The NFL season is now past the midway point and we at If It Ain’t Steel are once again throwing our two cents in to the 'midseason awards and predictions' hat.

(Aside: We were down for approximately two weeks and missed getting this out after Week 9 or 10 at the latest. The choices, though, are no different now from what they were a week ago.)

Week 11 is in the books and we're now at a crucial point for a lot teams. It's the time of year when the cream rises to the top individually and as teams are concerned. 

Without further ado, let's just get into the midseason awards and predictions for 2013. We'll start off with...

Comeback Player of the Year: Running Back LeSean McCoy, Eagles, or Outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, Ravens - McCoy leads the league in rushing yards (1,009), averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and in total yards from scrimmage (1,408), touching the ball 247 times, all of this after missing four games and only rushing for 840 yards last season.

But If It Ain't Steel's choice for the midseason winner and the season-award prediction is Terrell Suggs. Suggs suffered a partially torn Achilles tendon requiring surgery in the Spring of 2012, sidelining him for the first six games of the season and causing him to miss a total of eight games. He was largely ineffective and finished the season with just two sacks

Fast forward to 2013 and a fully recovered Suggs is wreaking havoc once again. He is tied for 6th in the NFL in sacks with nine (in 10 games) and has 65 tackles, which is 26 more than the NFL sack leader Robert Mathis - keep that name in mind for later.

Coach of the Year: Andy Reid, Chiefs - Andy Reid is the only one in the discussion. The one-loss Chiefs have already improved upon its win total from 2012 of 2-14. The NFL record for win improvement from one season to the next is 10 (the Colts from 3-13 in '98 to 13-3 in '99, and the Dolphins from 1-15 in '07 to 11-5 in '08). Reid and his team are well on their way to breaking that record. At 9-1 they are tied atop the AFC West with the Broncos and could easily make it to 13-3 or better in the regular season and could go a long way in the playoffs - earning Reid the award in the process.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Outside linebacker Alec Ogletree, Rams, or middle linebacker Kiko Alonso - With 65 tackles, 55 solo, six passes defended, three forced fumbles and a 98-yard interception return for a touchdown, Ogletree is definitely in the consideration for defensive rookie honors.

But our choice for the midseason winner and the season-award prediction is Kiko Alonso. Alonso, the second-round pick out of Oregon, leads his team with 112 tackles (including amassing a very impressive 22 tackles in a loss to the Bengals), leads them in interceptions with four (which is also tied for second in the NFL), has four passes defended and both a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. More worthy candidates could emerge over the next few weeks, like Sheldon Richardson or even our pre-draft favorite Kenny Vacarro, but Alonso is the current leader in the clubhouse.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Quarterback Geno Smith, Jets, or running back Eddie Lacy, Packers - The talented West Virginia product has the requisite tools to be a starter and star in the NFL. Smith was thrown into a difficult situation when Mark Sanchez went down for the season and has played well, leading the Jets to a 5-5 record so far after the team was 6-10 all of last season.

But the one we've chosen as the midseason winner and the season-award prediction is Eddie Lacy. Coming out of Alabama, there were concerns about Lacy: he had injury issues, he had bigger numbers against lesser opponents and he was the beneficiary of an NFL-caliber offensive line in college. Well, he's silenced his critics, yours truly included, and has become the main back in the Packers offense. He leads all NFL rookies with 696 yards rushing and a 4.0 yard average. While there's still time for him to be caught, say maybe by DeAndre Hopkins, he has a strong hold on the lead for now.

Defensive Player of the Year: Free Safety Earl Thomas, Seahawks, or DE/OLB Robert Mathis - Thomas is the "Road Runner", because when he catches you you're through! (Thank you, John Gruden.) He has 78 tackles this season to along with seven passes defended, four interceptions and two forced fumbles. According to his coach, also, the 2012 All-Pro is just hitting his stride. "There's no end to the potential Earl has," said Pete Carroll, "because he's so fast and he's so tough, but more than that, he's just so driven to be great."

Even with such a résumé, though, our midseason winner and the season-award prediction goes to Robert Mathis. The 6'2" 245-pound Mathis has been a strong-side defender throughout his career. Now with the switch to 3-4 defense, Mathis is the primary rush LB and doesn't have to set the edge and so just pins his ears back and attacks. Because the position change has buoyed his sack total, Mathis no longer has a pre-game meal - he simply eats left tackles for lunch. With 13.5 sacks, three forced fumbles and a safety, Mathis is in good position for 21.5 sacks - a career-high - and DPOY award.

Offensive Player of the Year: RB Jamaal Charles, Chiefs, or QB Peyton Manning, Broncos - Charles is all over the field. He runs the ball, catches passes out of the backfield, plays the option (w/QB Alex Smith) and even runs the Wildcat. He is the key to the Chiefs' offense.

However, our choice for the midseason winner and the season-award prediction needs no introduction. Peyton Manning has been nothing short of brilliant all season. Seeing Joe Flacco's image all over Peyton's city before the NFL's opening Thursday Night Kickoff caused this Bronco to stampede the Ravens and then never looked back. With a 118.3 QB Rating, almost 12 points higher than the next passer, a 69.9% completion rate, and 34 touchdown passes against only six INTs (a near 6-1 ratio), Manning just may get the award that eluded him last season. If so...

MVP: QB Peyton Manning, Broncos - Yes, Cam Newton, Calvin Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Drew Brees are in the discussion, but it may be against the Law to choose anyone but The Sheriff this season. His numbers are better across the board over every other QB in the league and he's poised to break Tom Brady's record of 50 TD passes set in the 2007 season, on a pace for 54. He isn't just the best player on the best team, he is the captain that drives the wagon train - they won't arrive at their destination in February without him. You don't get much more valuable than that.

Super Bowl prediction:

A few years ago, this would have been a prediction for the AFC Championship game. Now it's the final game. And while the 49ers, Patriots and Bengals may have something to say about it, Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos.

Three months of football are in the books, and in three more months we'll know how many of these will have come to fruition. Until then.

Rebuild or Reload: Steelers' Run Game Is Key Factor, part 1

As the Pittsburgh Steelers wind their way through the offseason in preparation for 2013, the problems that face them beg the question as to whether they will be able to reload or whether they'll have to rebuild.

While at present it seems that the scales are unbalanced toward the latter, there is still a long offseason to go. As new offensive line coach Jack Bicknell, jr. said last week, the "foundation" of a successful team and season definitely begins with the offensive line, and, more pointedly, players "athletic enough and be able to move."

Though it won't be a one-year transformation, with Bicknell saying that more athletic offensive linemen are needed, naturally such a running back who can exploit the various blocking schemes that will be seen going forward must be found. More pointedly, a true No. 1 running back.

Now bear in mind, we're not advocating selecting a running back in the first round. History dictates that a number one or first-round running back isn't a guarantee for success. Finding someone in the middle rounds is completely possible and feasible.

Case in point: of the top 10 rushers in the NFL in 2012, five - Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller and Chris Johnson - were 1st-round picks. Of the remaining five - Alfred Morris (173rd pick), Jamaal Charles (73rd), Steven Ridley (73rd) and Frank Gore (65th) - were not first rounders, with Arian Foster not being drafted at all.

So, although Steelers fans know full well that the team could also find someone after the draft (see: Willie Parker), they still won't likely take such a chance. The likeliness is that they will look to find a good running back in the middle-to-later rounds.

Who, then, fit the bill and would be available in the middle rounds?

Montee Ball (5'11", 215 ibs.) is a workhorse of a running back. He knows where the hole is and he attacks them (4.57/40). But he can also change direction quickly enough to be used in a zone-blocking offense. Further, he's as productive as he is aggressive. He lead the NCAA in rushing yards (1,923) and yards from scrimmage (2,229). - http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1665003

At the risk of going to the well once too often, the University of Florida's Mike Gillislee (5'11", 207 lbs.) has very good speed (4.56/40) and wants to make a big play every time he touches the ball. Though he has the tendency to stutter step a bit, somewhat like the soon-to-be-departed Rashard Mendenhall, GIllislee's vision had the Steelers scouting him at the Senior Bowl. - http://tinyurl.com/6ue2afd

Others worth taking note of are Ray Graham (5'9", 192 lbs.) of the University of Pittsburgh and Joseph Randle (6'0", 200 lbs.) of Oklahoma State University. Both are burners (4.54/40 and 4.50/40 respectively) who can pass protect and who are good pass catchers out of the backfield.

One source, though, believes the Steelers already have a running back on their roster who is suited for the role, and can stand pat. The website SteelBlitz.com gives an argument for the retention of Jonathan Dwyer. - http://tinyurl.com/b7djykk

That would leave the Steelers with Dwyer, fullback Will Johnson and exclusive rights free agent Baron Batch, since it's doubtful they would tender both Dwyer and Isaac Redman. At that point they could sign an undrafted free agent or retain a Futures contract player who shows enough promise.

However the Steelers approach the issue, it will affect the entire offense and the success of the team. History dictates that it will affect them greatly. And in the conclusion of this two-part series, we'll show how the running game has affected the success of the team, positively and adversely, in recent years and why parts of that history the Steelers shouldn't doom themselves to repeat.

Steelers Ben Roethlisberger Injured, Overshadows Victory

"The armies separated; and, it is said, Pyrrhus replied to one that gave him joy of his victory that one more such victory would utterly undo him. For he had lost a great part of the forces he brought with him...." - Plutarch

Do you know what a Pyrrhic victory is? A Pyrrhic victory is a victory with such a devastating cost that the heavy toll negates any sense of gain or profit.

Both Ben Roethlisberger and Ryan Clark, the Steelers offensive and defensive MVPs in the first half of the season, went down with injuries in the Steelers 16-13 overtime win on Monday Night Football.

Ryan Clark seems to have a concussion. He may miss the Ravens game next Sunday night. Big Ben may be more serious.

Big Ben left the game in the third quarter after being sacked by Kansas City Chiefs defenders Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. He was taken to the locker room and then to hospital for further evaluation.

Adam Schefter tweeted from his Twitter (@AdamSchefter) account that the "Steelers officials have not been told anything about Ben Roethlisberger having a separated shoulder. They have been told it is sprained."

"Ben Roethlisberger at hospital. Maybe shoulder will turn out to be separated. But all Steelers have been told so far is it is sprained."

Tomlin confirmed that Big Ben left the stadium and was evaluated at a nearby hospital, but didn't speculate on Big Ben until more is known. He said he doesn't "live in the hypothetical world." He simply said they did enough to win. - http://tinyurl.com/a2ucy7f

There is no official word at present, however there is speculation that Big Ben suffered a shoulder sprain. No word as to what grade it is or whether it's an acromioclavicular joint sprain or sternoclavicular sprain.

Cliff notes version is that in Grades I or II sprains, the injury is treated with what we in the industry (I've revealed in previous blogs that I studied and worked in E.M.S. and Massage Therapy) PRICE: Pressure, Rest, Ice, Compression and Elevation. Anti-inflammatories, or NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), such as naproxen sodium (Aleve) or ibuprofen (Motrin amongst others) are used. This is a two to three week situation.

If it's a Grade III sprain, where major tearing of the connective tissue is involved, surgery may be required. But, either way, IF this is the situation, no Big Ben for the Ravens games. - http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8625787/ben-roethlisberger-pittsburgh-steelers-leaves-game-injury

With Big Ben missing most of the second half with a right shoulder injury, overtime was needed and Lawrence Timmons’ interception on the second play of the 5th period set up Shaun Suisham’s 23-yard field goal to beat the Kansas City Chiefs 16-13 in overtime over on Monday night.

In danger of losing to a team that hadn’t led in regulation all season, receiving their first lead Monday night, the Steelers were able to pull out the victory. A victory that many, including yours truly, said should've been easy.

“We made it hard on ourselves,” linebacker Larry Foote said. “We never make it easy.”

Though, again, the Steelers haven't yet revealed the severity of Big Ben's injury or how long he'll be out. The players are naturally concerned over their leader. Some didn't at all hold back their feelings on the matter.

“It scares you,” said offensive lineman Willie Colon. “Hopefully it’s not as bad as they’re saying.” - http://tinyurl.com/as7w7oy

Hopefully, Willie. Hopefully.

Without Big Ben, the Steelers turned to Byron Leftwich for their fourth straight victory.

Leftwich hadn't played in almost two years. It showed as he was very rusty at first, before hitting Emmanuel Sanders on a 31-yard pass that set up one of Sushi's three field goals.

Whether or not Big Ben had played the entire game, the Steelers didn't look ready for this game from the beginning. It isn't unusual for the defense this season to start slowly, but the offense usually generates early points.

Steelers offensive players said all week that they wanted to win this one for Haley. They did. Barely.

The normally on-point Steelers quarterback was just average in the first half. He was just 9-18 for 84 yards and a touchdown when he left the game.

The defense picked it up and kept the Chiefs scoreless most of the second half after being gashed early on the ground, but the offense never did come around.

Jamaal Charles put the Chiefs up, 7-0, with a 12-yard touchdown run in the first quarter and an Isaac Redman fumble gave the ball back to the Chiefs at the Steelers’ 10-yard line, but they weren’t able to punch it in and had to settle for a 22-yard Ryan Succop field goal to take a 10-0 lead.

A Sushi field goal gave the Steelers three points before Mike Wallace made a circus catch off of a Roethlisberger seven-yard pass in the end zone to even the game at 10-10 late in the second quarter. Wallace somehow kept the ball off the turf by holding it between his knees and securing it before rolling out of bounds.

Many of the details of the second half are all a blur for most Steelers fans as the only thing that really matters is that the Steelers mid-season defensive MVP and franchise quarterback are down and their status is uncertain at present.

If the injuries end up being relatively minor, we'll look back at a game that should have been won by a lot more than three points.

If the injuries are as feared, the victory could be a meaningless one. A Pyrrhic victory.