"They handled us and they handled us well." - head coach Mike
Tomlin after the Pittsburgh Steelers' 55-31 loss to the New England
Patriots.
Where do we begin?
The
Steelers walked into Gillette Stadium Sunday afternoon with their
playoff hopes hanging by a thread. The Patriots ceremoniously cut that
thread, dropping the once mighty Steelers to a lowly 2-6. It's almost
too difficult breaking down this loss. Like Steelers announcer Bill
Hillgrove said after the game, "Too many stats."
It's
for that very reason that we're going to leave the majority of the
actual breakdown to Bob Labriola so that we can focus on a broader
problem. - http://tinyurl.com/p95fuqm
Something
one scribe wrote in his article following the game was that the
Steelers had "one of the top pass defenses statistically heading into
the game." Well, it is Mark Twain who is credited with the quote,"There
are three types of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics."
The
poor performance we saw in last Sunday's 21-18 loss to the Oakland
Raiders prove some numbers don't lie, though. Meaning, in that case, the
numbers of missed sacks, missed tackles and the many missed
assignments.
In
retrospect, that was a virtuoso performance compared to what the
Steelers defense tried to pass off as professional against the Patriots.
Jason
Worilds had pity sacks (pun intended) and LaMarr Woodley, Lawrence
Timmons and Vince Williams got pressure only a few times, but none of it
was enough. The Steelers did actually have several pressures, as helped
by defensive ends Brett Keisel and Cam Heyward, but too few led to
sacks managing only three for the game.
To
say that their current effort simply isn't enough is an understatement.
For a point of reference, the Kansas City Chiefs not only lead the NFL
in sacks (36) and forced turnover (23) through nine games, but also in
wins. In fact, their 9-0 record is, in large part, due to those sacks
and turnovers.
That
used to be the Steelers forte: a rock-hard, fearsome defense that
punished quarterbacks and teams in general. They led the league or were
top three in the league in sacks six times in the 10 years from
2001-2010:
2001 .................. 55
2002 .................. 50
2003 .................. 35
2004 .................. 41
2005 .................. 47
2006 .................. 39
2007 .................. 36
2008 .................. 51
2009 .................. 47
2010 .................. 48
That's
the crux of this article, though. The defense isn't feared as it has
been, nor does it cause the chaotic confusion it once did. A confusion
that is supposed to be the driving force behind the 3-4 scheme defensive
coordinator Dick LeBeau uses.
Last
season, Raiders' quarterback made reference to the Steelers doing
pretty much what they had done "six, seven years ago." Sunday against
the Patriots, the Steelers had to blitz regularly just to get the amount
of pressure alluded to earlier. And it may simply be time to make one
very hard decision.
It may be time for Dick LeBeau to retire and allow new blood in at defensive coordinator.
Look,
it hurts to even write that. LeBeau is tremendously respected and is
one of the best all time at what he does. Few have achieved more in
football than Dick LeBeau, as a player, as a coach and as a man. Who
doesn't love Coach Dad?
Still,
the evidence has been there over the last few years and it's a subject
that needs to be addressed now. The word "predictable" has now been
used entirely too often in connection with Lebeau and his schemes. And
while execution always trumps predictability, there is too much evidence
to be ignored.
Let's
look at Super Bowl 45 an example, where the Green Bay Packers exploited
the Steelers secondary all game. It could have been worse, also, as
the Packers receivers dropped several balls, including a few that would
have been big gains.
What
was most bothersome, though, was after the Steelers had stormed back
and made it a 28-25 ball game with just over seven minutes left, the
defense gave up a huge clock killing field goal drive. The Steelers
didn't get the ball back till the 2:07 mark. The defense just couldn't
get off the field.
Just
like they couldn't Sunday against the Patriots. And there have simply
been too many situations where the defense does not show up when needed
most, especially late in games.
Now
with this last example being presented, it is clear that changes must
be made. LeBeau had seemingly shown the ability to change his attack
given the circumstances, as he did in the last New England Patriots game
in 2011. Yet, his game plan was horrible, reverting back to previous
years' performances.
Too
much base defense, not enough bump coverage, barely any effective
"quarters" coverage and great liabilities in Troy Polamalu and Ryan
Clark. All of this allowing quarterback Tom Brady, held to 118 passing
yards the week before, to pass for 432 yards. His 151.4 QBR was nearly
perfect.
The
Patriots put up 610 yards total - 98 more yards than a LeBeau-coached
or any Steelers' defense has ever allowed. The 55 points were
the most ever allowed, also, by any Steelers' defense, with the
previous high being 54 points set twice - in 1941 to the Packers and in
1985 to the San Diego Chargers.
"Probably
as disappointed as I have been," Tomlin said after the game,
"especially under the circumstances of how we were able to fight back
there at the beginning of the second half. I am angry. We are capable
and better than that. We've got to be better than that. We weren't, so
we are going to fix it." - http://tinyurl.com/kkscnsy
The
defense couldn't stop the pass, made rookie receivers look like
seasoned veterans and, worst of all, they couldn't stop the run - they
surrendered almost 200 yards on the ground. Worst of all, the last
rushing touchdown scored by the Patriots was just the bully being
bullied as LeGarrette Blount powered out of the arms of Ziggy Hood to
score.
"For a long time here we've been tough because we've played great defense here", Keisel said. "We need to get back to that."
They
were unprepared, outmatched and outclassed. In neither scheme nor
adjustments were the Steelers successful. Like Clark said, the Patriots
"were able to run it when they wanted to run it, which is an 11-man job,
and they were also able to pass it when they wanted to pass it, which
is an 11-man job....We were beat by a much better team."
That
isn't merely a player-execution problem when it's as consistent as it
has been for the Steelers. Like Tomlin said, they need to fix it. Well,
there's a lot to fix.
And fixing it starts from the top of the defensive pyramid down.
~
TIDBITS: Injury report: CB Ike Taylor (concussion), ILB Vince Williams (concussion) RT Marcus Gilbert (ankle)
"I got rolled up on my bad ankle, but I'll be fine." ~ Gilbert
Showing posts with label Chargers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chargers. Show all posts
Monday, November 4, 2013
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Tomlin Misses On Two Opportunities To Explain Two; Mendenhall Suspended
"First rule of coaching: Never admit you made the wrong call." - Ed Bouchette
Second rule of coaching: "NEVER admit you made the wrong call!"
That's the path that Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is taking, anyway, as he went 0-for-2 in two-point conversion excuses. At the post-game press conference Sunday, Tomlin said he wanted to save plays for later (in game or in season). Weak, but at least he was consistent.
Tomlin compounded that error Tuesday by saying he thought they had a better chance to "sneak back" into the game by not scoring the two-point conversion. - http://blog.steelers.com/2012/12/11/colon-out-after-having-surgery/
???
BUZZ!!! Aww...sorry. The correct answer was, "We got it wrong." Thanks for playing, though.
Tomlin should have just said, "I messed up by not going for two." But, evidently, he must have thought he could "sneak back" into the game since the Chargers were up by so many points that they wouldn't bother looking at the scoreboard.
Tomlin got this wrong. Period. Going for two and succeeding gets you to 16 points down with 6:07 remaining. Six minutes is a lot of time.
Teams have come back many times in the fourth quarter under similar circumstances. In 1985, the Minnesota Vikings were down 23-0 in the fourth to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Vikings won 28-23.
Want a more recent example? These very same San Diego Chargers blew a 24-point lead earlier this year.
To further the thought, if they had gone for two after the last two touchdowns and had been successful each time, it could have been an 8-point game which would have permitted an onside kick chance with 0:58 remaining.
Later, Tomlin admitted his failure to go for two was because "it was bleak at that point.''
Um...ok. If it was so "bleak" why keep Big Ben (SC joint) and Troy (calf/achilles) in the game? Essentially, mixed signals being sent by a coach who comes off tersely and with an H.N.I.C. demeanor more often than some would like.
Tomlin also again used his "We don't live in our fears, we live in our hopes" line. As Mark Kaboly of the Tribune-Review said, "If Tomlin doesn't live in his fears, why is he afraid to admit that he made a mistake by not going for 2?" Touché.
Further than that, Tomlin agreed with Keisel, among others, that the Steelers 'possibly weren't ready' Sunday. He doesn't mind players speaking "the truth," he said. Fine, but that's something they should own.
As Bob Labriola of Steelers Digest accurately stated on "Talking Steelers Football" on Monday, "these are professionals." This isn't college football, they shouldn't need to be rah, rah, sis boom bah'd or 'Gippered' into having an "urgency" about playing on Sunday. - http://tinyurl.com/beshdxa
That said, it's something that Tomlin needs to own as well. As was pointed out by Bob Smizik in his blog in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, losing "to bad teams is a direct reflection on coach Mike Tomlin, though he hardly is the only person who must take blame. A five-loss team, which the Steelers were, should have entered the game against San Diego yesterday with a greater sense or urgency." - http://communityvoices.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/sports/bob-smiziks-blog
Now, before the Tomlin detractors who love to say "Bring back Cowher!" jump on their soap boxes and try to use this as ammunition for the "fire Tomlin" canon, please remember a couple of things.
You say Tomlin is only 'winning with Cowher's players?' Well, Cowher won initially with Noll's players too. There are subtle differences, but that's the basic truth. In fact, every new coach initially wins or loses with the former coach's players. The key lies in what the new coach does once his or her players start filtering into the team.
With that in mind, what did Cowher do once the players Chuck Noll had drafted retire or move on to other teams? He had two losing seasons, ('98 & '99) and three consecutive seasons of nine or fewer wins.
Plus, Cowher was constantly being outcoached in the big games, specifically the AFC Championship games. So, don't tweak any neck muscles looking behind, the past isn't always as good as you remember.
All-in-all, though, Tomlin hasn't exactly had the best year. Can he salvage it to some degree? Yes. Three wins would help, though a mea culpa on Tuesday would have been a nice start. But, that isn't all.
His in-game management skills are lacking and this has been evident for a couple of years now. Granted, half the coaches in the NFL mismanage their timeouts, challenges and whatnot, it's just that one would expect there to be an appreciable increase in success in these areas.
His game planning for specific teams, though usually solid, has been up and down this year. In part, that is because the "next man up" has more often this season been an inexperienced player.
When that happens, it is ultimately on his shoulders to make the necessary adjustments to put that player in the best position possible. That isn't always the case, and there needs to be more consistency in that.
Of course, at least he was consistent on Tuesday...
~
"Understand Rashard Mendenhall tried to "sneak" back into game Sunday disguised as a 2-point conversion. Tomlin didn't go for it. #steelers" - Alan Robinson (@arobinson_Trib on Twitter) of Trib Total Media
Thank you for the segue, Mr. Namesake.
Tuesday, Mendenhall was suspended for one game for "conduct detrimental to the team." As Ed Bouchette reported, Mendy did not show up for the Chargers game after being told he would not dress. Mendy will lose $41,176 for missing one game, one week of his $700,000 salary.
Baron Batch was activated from the practice squad.
Need any fresher ink on that ticket Mendenhall signed for his way out of town this offseason?
It wasn't all bad, though. Mendy did have 3,309 total rushing yards and 29 touchdowns from 2009-2011, despite not being used as much by Bruce Arians as he could have been.
But, Mendy thinks he's still in the Steelers plans: http://tinyurl.com/9w8tbhj
~
TIDBITS: Tomlin confirmed that left guard Willie Colon underwent knee surgery Monday and will miss several games; rookie David DeCastro is healthy enough to play and will likely to start at right guard with Ramon Foster moving to the left guard spot; and Mike Adams out again.
Ike Taylor is out again, there is good news: http://tinyurl.com/bb49mlf
Byron Leftwich and LaMarr Woodley should be back on practice field. Cortez Allen and Keenan Lewis both limited early in week. No setbacks with Troy Polamalu.
~
Curtis Brown allowed six receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. Five of those six were on 3rd downs and they all resulted in 1st downs.
Cortez Allen allowed six receptions for 86 yards on Sunday. Three of those six catches were on 3rd downs and all three resulted in 1st downs also.
Get well soon, Ike, these youngins need your presence and tutelage.
~
Bad, bad trend for the Steelers: http://tinyurl.com/aromvwb
Second rule of coaching: "NEVER admit you made the wrong call!"
Tomlin compounded that error Tuesday by saying he thought they had a better chance to "sneak back" into the game by not scoring the two-point conversion. - http://blog.steelers.com/2012/12/11/colon-out-after-having-surgery/
???
BUZZ!!! Aww...sorry. The correct answer was, "We got it wrong." Thanks for playing, though.
Tomlin should have just said, "I messed up by not going for two." But, evidently, he must have thought he could "sneak back" into the game since the Chargers were up by so many points that they wouldn't bother looking at the scoreboard.
Tomlin got this wrong. Period. Going for two and succeeding gets you to 16 points down with 6:07 remaining. Six minutes is a lot of time.
Teams have come back many times in the fourth quarter under similar circumstances. In 1985, the Minnesota Vikings were down 23-0 in the fourth to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Vikings won 28-23.
Want a more recent example? These very same San Diego Chargers blew a 24-point lead earlier this year.
To further the thought, if they had gone for two after the last two touchdowns and had been successful each time, it could have been an 8-point game which would have permitted an onside kick chance with 0:58 remaining.
Later, Tomlin admitted his failure to go for two was because "it was bleak at that point.''
Um...ok. If it was so "bleak" why keep Big Ben (SC joint) and Troy (calf/achilles) in the game? Essentially, mixed signals being sent by a coach who comes off tersely and with an H.N.I.C. demeanor more often than some would like.
Tomlin also again used his "We don't live in our fears, we live in our hopes" line. As Mark Kaboly of the Tribune-Review said, "If Tomlin doesn't live in his fears, why is he afraid to admit that he made a mistake by not going for 2?" Touché.
Further than that, Tomlin agreed with Keisel, among others, that the Steelers 'possibly weren't ready' Sunday. He doesn't mind players speaking "the truth," he said. Fine, but that's something they should own.
As Bob Labriola of Steelers Digest accurately stated on "Talking Steelers Football" on Monday, "these are professionals." This isn't college football, they shouldn't need to be rah, rah, sis boom bah'd or 'Gippered' into having an "urgency" about playing on Sunday. - http://tinyurl.com/beshdxa
That said, it's something that Tomlin needs to own as well. As was pointed out by Bob Smizik in his blog in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, losing "to bad teams is a direct reflection on coach Mike Tomlin, though he hardly is the only person who must take blame. A five-loss team, which the Steelers were, should have entered the game against San Diego yesterday with a greater sense or urgency." - http://communityvoices.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/sports/bob-smiziks-blog
Now, before the Tomlin detractors who love to say "Bring back Cowher!" jump on their soap boxes and try to use this as ammunition for the "fire Tomlin" canon, please remember a couple of things.
You say Tomlin is only 'winning with Cowher's players?' Well, Cowher won initially with Noll's players too. There are subtle differences, but that's the basic truth. In fact, every new coach initially wins or loses with the former coach's players. The key lies in what the new coach does once his or her players start filtering into the team.
With that in mind, what did Cowher do once the players Chuck Noll had drafted retire or move on to other teams? He had two losing seasons, ('98 & '99) and three consecutive seasons of nine or fewer wins.
Plus, Cowher was constantly being outcoached in the big games, specifically the AFC Championship games. So, don't tweak any neck muscles looking behind, the past isn't always as good as you remember.
All-in-all, though, Tomlin hasn't exactly had the best year. Can he salvage it to some degree? Yes. Three wins would help, though a mea culpa on Tuesday would have been a nice start. But, that isn't all.
His in-game management skills are lacking and this has been evident for a couple of years now. Granted, half the coaches in the NFL mismanage their timeouts, challenges and whatnot, it's just that one would expect there to be an appreciable increase in success in these areas.
His game planning for specific teams, though usually solid, has been up and down this year. In part, that is because the "next man up" has more often this season been an inexperienced player.
When that happens, it is ultimately on his shoulders to make the necessary adjustments to put that player in the best position possible. That isn't always the case, and there needs to be more consistency in that.
Of course, at least he was consistent on Tuesday...
~
"Understand Rashard Mendenhall tried to "sneak" back into game Sunday disguised as a 2-point conversion. Tomlin didn't go for it. #steelers" - Alan Robinson (@arobinson_Trib on Twitter) of Trib Total Media
Tuesday, Mendenhall was suspended for one game for "conduct detrimental to the team." As Ed Bouchette reported, Mendy did not show up for the Chargers game after being told he would not dress. Mendy will lose $41,176 for missing one game, one week of his $700,000 salary.
Baron Batch was activated from the practice squad.
Need any fresher ink on that ticket Mendenhall signed for his way out of town this offseason?
It wasn't all bad, though. Mendy did have 3,309 total rushing yards and 29 touchdowns from 2009-2011, despite not being used as much by Bruce Arians as he could have been.
But, Mendy thinks he's still in the Steelers plans: http://tinyurl.com/9w8tbhj
~
TIDBITS: Tomlin confirmed that left guard Willie Colon underwent knee surgery Monday and will miss several games; rookie David DeCastro is healthy enough to play and will likely to start at right guard with Ramon Foster moving to the left guard spot; and Mike Adams out again.
Ike Taylor is out again, there is good news: http://tinyurl.com/bb49mlf
Byron Leftwich and LaMarr Woodley should be back on practice field. Cortez Allen and Keenan Lewis both limited early in week. No setbacks with Troy Polamalu.
~
Curtis Brown allowed six receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. Five of those six were on 3rd downs and they all resulted in 1st downs.
Cortez Allen allowed six receptions for 86 yards on Sunday. Three of those six catches were on 3rd downs and all three resulted in 1st downs also.
Get well soon, Ike, these youngins need your presence and tutelage.
~
Bad, bad trend for the Steelers: http://tinyurl.com/aromvwb
Sunday, December 9, 2012
Poor Play And Coaching Lead To Steelers Defeat, 34-24
It's a good thing Ben, jr. won't remember his first NFL game. Ben, sr. would like to forget it too.
In a game where the return of Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was supposed to inspire the offense, nothing was inspired. - http://tinyurl.com/b9emofu
On his performance and what went wrong Sunday, Big Ben said: "A little bit of this, a little bit of that. A lot of this, a lot of that. It was frustrating."
It should've been. He didn't exactly help his team early on in his first game after missing three games with rib and shoulder injuries. He now has a record of 3-4 in such starts.
He didn't get much help from his wide receivers, both Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown missed on big passes (one of which should've been a touchdown), or the offensive line in the first half, all of 25 yards rushing in first half, causing him to look even worse.
Big Ben was 9-20 for 105 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions in the first half. Steelers 2-9 on 3rd downs in first half also.
But he made two costly mistakes of his own early in the second half. Both happened deep in Steelers own territory and led to touchdowns.
A lateral bounced off of the helmet or back of tight end David Paulson and was recovered by the Chargers in the end zone. Although Brown should've just kicked it out of the end zone and suffer the safety, he tried to field it and couldn't. Result: touchdown.
Then, Roethlisberger was picked off at the Steelers' 17-yard line and the Chargers quickly converted that into a 15-yard touchdown pass by Rivers to 6'5" wide receiver Danario Alexander.
In a game also where the San Diego Chargers having Manny, Moe and Jack substituting on the offensive line was to have the defense's mouths salivating, they suffered from dry mouth.
Against men who were on practice squads and moving furniture last week, the Steelers managed just one sack. Also, the Steelers defense was third in the league on 10-play drives allowed this year. Then they go and allow a 17-play drive that resulted in a 20-3 deficit.
It was a completely pathetic showing. Maybe the worst Steelers performance at home since the December, 2006 loss (31-7) to the Ravens. And most pathetic showing against a bad team since something called a Tim Couch walloped them (33-13) in 2003. This after a majorly gutsy performance at the Ravens last week. Their inconsistency is disturbing. - http://tinyurl.com/aw2d4ma
The Steelers (7-6) simply laid an egg against a Chargers team that had lost seven of its last eight. Though the Chargers had been in every game and lost by an average of less than a touchdown, as we pointed out last week, this still shouldn't have happened. - http://tinyurl.com/akewovq
"In a lot of ways, we'll enjoy this win, but in reflection, we'll be sick," Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers said. "We'll be sick we didn't find a way the last few weeks."
They shouldn't have this week, either. For some reason, the defense played soft on corners and got chewed up. Yes, their receivers are 6'4" and 6'5", but this week still should've been a press-coverage day.
Bottom line, the Steelers looked bad from the opening kick. As head coach Mike Tomlin said, they "coached poorly, [and] played poorly today." - http://tinyurl.com/apslzrs
Steelers linebacker Larry Foote offered up his assessment of their performance: "We lost. We got our butt whupped...a good ol' butt whupping. Why? I don't know."
You don't? Fellow defensive man Brett Keisel thinks he does. Keisel said he didn't think players were ready to play. "That's why we lost," he said. "The whole game felt out of hand. It didn’t really feel like we were in the game at all."
Cortez Allen agreed and added: "I feel like our enthusiasm wasn’t as high, our excitement, intensity wasn’t as high as it was previously in previous games."
Running back Isaac Redman said something similar: "We lacked enthusiasm. It showed on the field."
Yes, it did. Worse yet, they looked disinterested. Which raises a troubling question: If not now, when?
It's week 13 in a 17-week NFL season. When ARE you going to be ready and enthusiastic?
"Starting tomorrow," Foote answered, "we’ve got to correct this thing and start making a commitment. It’s going to be one of those gut-checking times." - http://sportstalk.triblive.com/content/chargers-34-steelers-24-postgame-quotes
"Tomorrow?" Allow me to quote Apollo Creed here: "THERE IS NO TOMORROW!" - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC_1U7xgAeY
"Tomorrow" is a Training Camp or preseason word, not an end-of-the-season word. Now is not the time to find your identity. Nor is it a time to still fumble your timeouts and your game/clock management in general.
Tomlin's game management continues to be poor. We at If It Ain't Steel are Tomlin fans to be sure. He is a true leader and motivator of men. He knows the game and his players respect him. However, his in-game management is lacking. It is something he has to get better at going forward, especially if this team is to make any sort of run in the playoffs.
There were some things for the Steelers to hang their hats on to some degree. Things that can be positives as they head into the last few games. One was that the Bengals lost in the final seconds to Dallas, meaning that the Steelers and Bengals remain tied for the last playoff spot in the AFC.
The Steelers also stayed two games behind the AFC North-leading Ravens (9-4), who lost at Washington in overtime.
That isn't just good because the Ravens lost (that always feels good), but because, believe it or not, the division can still be won. With that in mind, the Steelers players know they have to take advantage. - http://tinyurl.com/at59rmn
Also, Big Ben is obviously healthy enough to move around in and out of the pocket. All told, he was 22-42 for 285 yards, three touchdowns and the one interception. He also ran 31 yards with a 6.2 YPC average.
All-in-all, it was a poor performance in every aspect of the game. Though Ben, sr. will have to endure watching it again in film study, I doubt he'll keep it on his DVR for Ben, jr.
~
TIDBITS: INJURIES - Colon (knee), Clark (hip), Sanders (AC joint) and Troy (Achilles).
~
Big Ben on fans booing Mike Wallace: "Nobody should ever get booed. We are out their busting our butt. Nobody intentionally does anything to hurt the team. I don't intentionally throw interceptions and guys don't intentionally miss blocks or fumble. We don't intentionally do it. I just told him that I was going to come back to him, and keep his head up and he made plays for us late." Wallace's interview and reaction to his game: http://tinyurl.com/amne6d5
~
Though no one should care about stats in a loss, Big Ben is now the 25th quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 29,000 yards (29,151) and run for at least 1,000 yards (1,033) during the regular season.
~
Steelers average starting field position Sunday was their own 19-yard line.
~
Big Ben on why we didn't see Plaxico Burress more after his 18-yard catch on 3rd down: "Did you ask coach that?"
Unhappy QB?
~
Wallace was pushed right in front of an official on the deep pass in the first half, but no flag. Per Jim Wexell, even the San Diego media was laughing at the no-call. *sigh*
~
Today marked the 14th time Big Ben and Wallace connected for a touchdown of at least 40 yards, extending their franchise and near-NFL record.
In a game where the return of Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was supposed to inspire the offense, nothing was inspired. - http://tinyurl.com/b9emofu
On his performance and what went wrong Sunday, Big Ben said: "A little bit of this, a little bit of that. A lot of this, a lot of that. It was frustrating."
It should've been. He didn't exactly help his team early on in his first game after missing three games with rib and shoulder injuries. He now has a record of 3-4 in such starts.
He didn't get much help from his wide receivers, both Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown missed on big passes (one of which should've been a touchdown), or the offensive line in the first half, all of 25 yards rushing in first half, causing him to look even worse.
Big Ben was 9-20 for 105 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions in the first half. Steelers 2-9 on 3rd downs in first half also.
A lateral bounced off of the helmet or back of tight end David Paulson and was recovered by the Chargers in the end zone. Although Brown should've just kicked it out of the end zone and suffer the safety, he tried to field it and couldn't. Result: touchdown.
Then, Roethlisberger was picked off at the Steelers' 17-yard line and the Chargers quickly converted that into a 15-yard touchdown pass by Rivers to 6'5" wide receiver Danario Alexander.
In a game also where the San Diego Chargers having Manny, Moe and Jack substituting on the offensive line was to have the defense's mouths salivating, they suffered from dry mouth.
Against men who were on practice squads and moving furniture last week, the Steelers managed just one sack. Also, the Steelers defense was third in the league on 10-play drives allowed this year. Then they go and allow a 17-play drive that resulted in a 20-3 deficit.
It was a completely pathetic showing. Maybe the worst Steelers performance at home since the December, 2006 loss (31-7) to the Ravens. And most pathetic showing against a bad team since something called a Tim Couch walloped them (33-13) in 2003. This after a majorly gutsy performance at the Ravens last week. Their inconsistency is disturbing. - http://tinyurl.com/aw2d4ma
The Steelers (7-6) simply laid an egg against a Chargers team that had lost seven of its last eight. Though the Chargers had been in every game and lost by an average of less than a touchdown, as we pointed out last week, this still shouldn't have happened. - http://tinyurl.com/akewovq
"In a lot of ways, we'll enjoy this win, but in reflection, we'll be sick," Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers said. "We'll be sick we didn't find a way the last few weeks."
They shouldn't have this week, either. For some reason, the defense played soft on corners and got chewed up. Yes, their receivers are 6'4" and 6'5", but this week still should've been a press-coverage day.
Bottom line, the Steelers looked bad from the opening kick. As head coach Mike Tomlin said, they "coached poorly, [and] played poorly today." - http://tinyurl.com/apslzrs
Steelers linebacker Larry Foote offered up his assessment of their performance: "We lost. We got our butt whupped...a good ol' butt whupping. Why? I don't know."
You don't? Fellow defensive man Brett Keisel thinks he does. Keisel said he didn't think players were ready to play. "That's why we lost," he said. "The whole game felt out of hand. It didn’t really feel like we were in the game at all."
Cortez Allen agreed and added: "I feel like our enthusiasm wasn’t as high, our excitement, intensity wasn’t as high as it was previously in previous games."
Running back Isaac Redman said something similar: "We lacked enthusiasm. It showed on the field."
Yes, it did. Worse yet, they looked disinterested. Which raises a troubling question: If not now, when?
It's week 13 in a 17-week NFL season. When ARE you going to be ready and enthusiastic?
"Starting tomorrow," Foote answered, "we’ve got to correct this thing and start making a commitment. It’s going to be one of those gut-checking times." - http://sportstalk.triblive.com/content/chargers-34-steelers-24-postgame-quotes
"Tomorrow?" Allow me to quote Apollo Creed here: "THERE IS NO TOMORROW!" - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC_1U7xgAeY
"Tomorrow" is a Training Camp or preseason word, not an end-of-the-season word. Now is not the time to find your identity. Nor is it a time to still fumble your timeouts and your game/clock management in general.
Tomlin's game management continues to be poor. We at If It Ain't Steel are Tomlin fans to be sure. He is a true leader and motivator of men. He knows the game and his players respect him. However, his in-game management is lacking. It is something he has to get better at going forward, especially if this team is to make any sort of run in the playoffs.
There were some things for the Steelers to hang their hats on to some degree. Things that can be positives as they head into the last few games. One was that the Bengals lost in the final seconds to Dallas, meaning that the Steelers and Bengals remain tied for the last playoff spot in the AFC.
The Steelers also stayed two games behind the AFC North-leading Ravens (9-4), who lost at Washington in overtime.
That isn't just good because the Ravens lost (that always feels good), but because, believe it or not, the division can still be won. With that in mind, the Steelers players know they have to take advantage. - http://tinyurl.com/at59rmn
Also, Big Ben is obviously healthy enough to move around in and out of the pocket. All told, he was 22-42 for 285 yards, three touchdowns and the one interception. He also ran 31 yards with a 6.2 YPC average.
All-in-all, it was a poor performance in every aspect of the game. Though Ben, sr. will have to endure watching it again in film study, I doubt he'll keep it on his DVR for Ben, jr.
~
TIDBITS: INJURIES - Colon (knee), Clark (hip), Sanders (AC joint) and Troy (Achilles).
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Big Ben on fans booing Mike Wallace: "Nobody should ever get booed. We are out their busting our butt. Nobody intentionally does anything to hurt the team. I don't intentionally throw interceptions and guys don't intentionally miss blocks or fumble. We don't intentionally do it. I just told him that I was going to come back to him, and keep his head up and he made plays for us late." Wallace's interview and reaction to his game: http://tinyurl.com/amne6d5
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Though no one should care about stats in a loss, Big Ben is now the 25th quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 29,000 yards (29,151) and run for at least 1,000 yards (1,033) during the regular season.
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Steelers average starting field position Sunday was their own 19-yard line.
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Big Ben on why we didn't see Plaxico Burress more after his 18-yard catch on 3rd down: "Did you ask coach that?"
Unhappy QB?
~
Wallace was pushed right in front of an official on the deep pass in the first half, but no flag. Per Jim Wexell, even the San Diego media was laughing at the no-call. *sigh*
~
Today marked the 14th time Big Ben and Wallace connected for a touchdown of at least 40 yards, extending their franchise and near-NFL record.
Friday, December 7, 2012
Steelers Look For History To Repeat Itself Against Chargers
In case you missed the news, not that it's been mentioned all week or anything, the San Diego Chargers are 0-14 against the Steelers in Pittsburgh during regular season.
That and a $1.50 will get you a coffee at Starbucks.
That said, it's the former history that the Steelers (7-5) want repeated, not the latter. This version of the Chargers (4-8) does have its issues, but don't expect them to just lay down and concede victory, either.
The Chargers have weapons to throw at the Steelers and have the ability to turn back missiles launched their way as well. Despite having lost seven of their last eight games, they've been in each game into the fourth quarter and have lost by less than a touchdown on the average (6.6 points). ColdHardFacts.com breaks down the last game even further in a recent column that you can find here: http://tinyurl.com/arpoatx
Keeping that in consideration, the main thing that will be on the minds of every Steelers fan when the offense is on the field is "Protect Big Ben." One way to do that is to be able to run the football. That won't be overly easy.
The Chargers are the NFL's seventh ranked run defense and they're tied for fifth in run average per carry (3.8 YPC). The Chargers defense is ranked ninth overall.
Per Pro Football Talk, the Steelers asked Unequal Technologies to create the protective vest for Big Ben to wear in order to protect his injured right shoulder. The vest will include Concussion Reduction Technology (CRT) padding already in some NFL helmets. - http://tinyurl.com/aoeu852
Even so, the Chargers aren't exactly sacking the quarterback at a record pace this year. They have sacked the QB even fewer times than the Steelers have, doing so only 23 times. Shaun Phillips leads them with seven so far on the season.
When passing, the Steelers will have all of Young Money, aka the Bugatti Boys, aka "the boo boo crew" to throw to again. One of whom caused a bit of a stir in an interview with Ralph Paulk of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
Mike Wallace had some...interesting comments regarding his inclusion in the offense and his production. He referenced his drops as an issue he's well aware of.
"I've never been a guy who dropped balls or just lose focus," Wallace told Paulk. "The first three years, I was always involved, so you just warmed up in games and were just into it.
"But when you don't get the ball for two-and-half quarters, you lose focus," Wallace continued. "But that's the type of offense this is. We're spreading it around, so you're not going to get as many targets. When you get them, you have to make the best of them." - http://triblive.com/sports/steelers/3090560-85/wallace-yards-ball#axzz2EPi2Xplb
O...kayyy... Really?
Granted, Wallace was labeled as a co-starter (i.e. "demoted") by coach Mike Tomlin last week. Wallace did start against the Ravens, yes, but his snaps were significantly down compared to other games, per Mark Kaboly. Also, he's had just six targets over the last five games.
And as he pointed out, the Steelers wide receiver snaps vs. Ravens went as follows: Antonio Brown, 52; Emmanuel Sanders, 49; and Wallace, 41. - http://tinyurl.com/as58cl9
Does that equal fewer targets on the whole, though? Let's break down the key points of his assertion and see what's real.
1) "Focus" is a 'you' problem first of all. Faithful readers to If It Ain't Steel know that we've talked about this before. If he isn't involved early, he can become disinterested. Now, he's admitted it.
2) The "dropped balls" is much more of a problem this year as, I do believe, he's now credited with eight. He has 52 catches so far on the season. So, if he catches those other eight, he would have 60 by now, i.e. the total he had in 2010.
3) How can he say he's not getting "as many targets" when he's actually getting targeted more often? Look at the actual numbers:
Targets -
2010: 100 in 16 games (6.25 avg per gm)
2011: 113 in 16 games (7.06 avg per gm)
2012: 93 in 12 games (7.75 avg per gm)
Receptions -
2010: 60 in 16 games (3.75 avg per gm)
2011: 72 in 16 games (4.5 avg per gm)
2012: 52 in 12 games (4.33 avg per gm)
Now, help me with this, how is he less involved? He's currently on pace for 69 receptions. Not only that, but he could also attain a career high in receptions if he caught more of the passes where he was targeted.
That being the case, expect him to be looked for early in the game to appease him and to keep him from falling asleep at halftime. Either that or expect the team to buy stock in 5-Hour Energy.
With Willie Colon saying he "felt real good," and being listed as Probable on the Friday report (he says he's a game-time decision), that's added help against those rushers so Big Ben can gets Wallace those targets, and for pushing the run game that will be led once again by Jonathan Dwyer.
"He obviously is being tested, but he passed that first test. Now he has to come out and back it up," Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley said of Dwyer. Most of the questions naturally were about the return of Big Ben, but he did address his running back. - http://blog.steelers.com/2012/12/06/coordinators-corner-haley-lebeau-4/
“The older guys, we keep telling the younger guys about this. They’ve got to believe, they’ve got to understand how important these games are to us. We’ve just got to get a ticket.” - Steelers inside linebacker Larry Foote
Cam Heyward and Steve McLendon are two of those "younger guys." They saw more snaps against the Ravens last week and it needs to continue. They are proving themselves to as effective, and sometimes more so, as the "older guys" they're subbing in for throughout the game. This will continue to be necessary so that the Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel won't be so banged up heading into the playoffs.
No time like the present.
In the Chargers loss last Sunday to the Cincinnati Bengals, they lost starting right tackle Jeromey Clary (knee), left guard Tyronne Green (hamstring) and left tackle Mike Harris (high ankle sprain). Head coach Norv Turner said on Monday that he doesn’t expect any of those players to be able to go this Sunday.
He was right, don't expect any of them. The Chargers Friday injury/practice report said, among others, that Clary is out, Green is doubtful and that Harris is questionable. And if Harris does play, he'll be very limited.
To offset all the injuries, three different offensive linemen were signed off of their practice squad or off of the street during the week.
Maybe it's the chicken I have thawing in the sink, but I can literally smell blood in the water.
Steelers offensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will definitely dial up schemes designed to exploit those mismatches and get after Philip Rivers early.
"Yeah, that's what we do," quipped LeBeau. "I never answer any questions about game plan."
He did answer questions about his players, though, and what he expects of them. Specifically Troy Polamalu and James Harrison.
"Troy's instincts are so great and that's something you don't lose," LeBeau said. "From the first snap that he went in there, you could tell it was Troy in there. He's just a special player. We're happy to have him back."
Of his other former NFL Defensive Player of the Year, LeBeau said that he believes that the Silverback has 'turned the corner' and that "he's been getting better every week," but that he's finally "playing at a very high level."
It was Deebo's strip sack that fueled the comeback victory over the Ravens last Sunday, and he knows he'll need to continue his heroic play this week.
Despite having an offensive line decimates by injuries, the Silverback knows not to assume they'll just lie down for the Steelers. The sacks that Rivers has endured, 36 so far this year, has affected his overall play, resulting in poor numbers for Rivers.
Deebo, when asked about Rivers' poor numbers, said, "I'm not worried about that. I hope they get lower. That's not my problem."
Yes, sir, Mr. Harrison.
Deebo has always been that way, though. He has no regard for the opposing players and teams. He's judge, jury and executioner on the field when healthy. And, like LeBeau said, he's getting back there. - http://tinyurl.com/ac3oa2x
The other aspect of the defense that LeBeau spoke of, though, was the secondary and what to expect with Ike Taylor out for a couple of weeks.
Ike, who has never missed a game under LeBeau, had 32 tackles, 13 pass defenses and one interception in the 12 games prior to his injury.
Cortez Allen replaced Ike and, after giving up a long pass interference penalty and a 28-yard touchdown to Ravens receiver Anquan Boldin, settled down and played well having five tackles and three pass defenses.
Curtis Brown, who had a tackle and a pass defense against the Ravens, now becomes the third cornerback. In the nickel packages he'll stay outside and 'Tez Allen will move inside to his normal slot position as he has the most experience in it.
The other side of that coin is a player should be in Pro Bowl consideration: Keenan Lewis.
Lewis has recorded 57 total tackles and is one of the top cornerbacks in the league in passes defended with 19. He is only allowing an approximate 53% completion ratio on passes thrown his way.
He predicted back in May that he'd make the Pro Bowl, but having no interceptions may hurt his bid. Still, he's locking down one side of the field.
All of those men will be needed against the tall receivers of the Chargers. If they close the back door, though, and Deebo and Jason Worilds, who now leads the team in sacks with five, can bust down the front door, the Steelers could find themselves repeating history again.
~
TIDBITS: Practice/Injury reports: Steelers - Mike Adams, Ike Taylor and LaMarr Woodley are out; Leftwich is questionable; Antonio Brown, Drew Butler (illness), Ryan Clark, Willie Colon, Jerricho Cotchery, Will Johnson, Troy Polamalu, Ben Roethlisberger, Emmanuel Sanders and Mike Wallace are probable.
Chargers - Donald Butler, Eddie Royal and Jeromey Clary are out; Tyronne Green is doubtful; and Mike Harris is questionable.
~
Love for the big guy:
"Ben Roethlisberger is not only one of the best quarterbacks, but one of the best players, in the NFL. Having him back changes the mindset of all the players and gives them confidence. It gives the coaches confidence in what they’re trying to do in calling and designing plays.
“The one thing about Ben Roethlisberger that people don’t pay enough attention to is that he’s a terrific thrower of the football. When there’s a play to be made by throwing it down the field, he makes it. It always gets lost when people talk about these quarterbacks in the NFL. He may not put up the numbers of Drew Brees or Tom Brady but he takes advantage of every opportunity that’s presented to him." - Phil Simms
"He's awesome. He's a comeback quarterback, he's our leader, he's our field general -- he's everything....It's December football and we're trying to clinch a spot. With him back, our odds are good." - Willie Colon
"Ben's one of the best players on our team and one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Whenever we get him back that's good for us." - Heath Miller
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Charlie Batch is completely embarrassed after almost losing to Joe Flacco. - http://www.theonion.com/articles/charlie-batch-totally-embarrassed-after-almost-los,30634/
Monday, November 5, 2012
If It Ain't Steel's NFL Mid-Season Reports And Predictions
The NFL season is at the midway point and we at If It Ain’t Steel are going to throw our predictions out there at the midway point along with some others. Week nine is in the books and we're now at a crucial point for a lot teams. This is the time of year when the cream rises to the top and the men separate themselves from the boys.
Starting off, we are going to talk mid-season MVP. The clear cut winner right now has to be Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons. Matty Ice, or the “Matural” as he has been called as of late, has the Falcons sitting at 8-0 and has been playing rather well a fifth year starter. Do we think that he will win the MVP hands down, if it was decided today? Yes, but it's not being decided today, so time will tell. There are some very viable candidates out there who could make a case for having their names mentioned in this discussion.
One who could emerge from the rubble as the 2012 NFL MVP is "The Sheriff”, Peyton Manning. He is playing extremely well coming of a neck injury (and four neck surgeries) that sidelined him for all of 2011, so I would not stick the fork in him just yet. There is also his little brother Eli who is having a very good season as well. Then there are also ones like Drew Brees, Percy Harvin, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger who are leading for their teams in the right direction. So, as of right now there is no clear cut winner.
If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: Peyton Manning
As of right now, the Defensive Player of the Year is clearly J.J. Watt's to lose. He is playing lights out on defense and leads the league in sacks (10.5) and has been batting down passes like a wild man (10...as a DEFENSIVE END). He is helping this Texans defense show why they are to be feared and one of the most complete defenses in the league. Bears cornerback Tim Jennings is making a good case for consideration as well with a league-leading six interceptions, one for a touchdown, and 15 passes defended. Clay Matthews is making a good case, as is Demarcus Ware, but I again say it is Watt's to lose.
If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: J.J. Watt
Comeback Player of the Year is also Peyton Manning’s to lose. He came back this season under the cloud of “can he play like the Peyton that we are all used to?” It turns out that the answer is a resounding "yes!" He sat out all last season and a lot of people, including myself, thought he would never be the Peyton of old. But, he proved me and a lot of others wrong. He is playing very well and, just like always, is making no-name receivers household names. Adrian Peterson is also a consideration as he leads the NFL in rushing (957 yards) through eight games after missing most of last season with a devastating knee injury. Matt Schaub’s name could also be put into this mix, coming off a foot injury last season and having the Texans poised to take the first seed in the AFC. Time will tell.
If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: Peyton Manning
Rookie of the Year is still up for grabs in my opinion. Yes, right now Robert Griffin III is the front runner, but don’t count Andrew Luck out of this race just yet. Luck has been impressive so far in his rookie campaign as well, including setting a single-game rookie record Sunday for passing with 433 yards. He does not have the running yards that RGIII has, but he is playing well and has the Indianapolis Colts already at a better record than they had at this point in the season last year and is slowly making the people of Indy forget about that other guy. Russell Wilson is also playing well, but I believe this one will be a tight two-man race until the end.
If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: Andrew Griffin 1.5
Coach of the Year is a tough one in my opinion. These guys are responsible for what goes on with their teams. If their team is having a bad season, then it is their name that gets tossed around as being on the proverbial hot seat. If the award was given today it would go to Mike Smith. The Falcons are playing perfect ball right now, but won't go undefeated.
Another coach that sticks out to me who should be in the conversation is Gary Kubiak of the Texans. The Texans are 7-1 and playing almost as well as the Falcons. They had one bad game against the Green Bay Packers, but that happens to teams. How did they respond? They came back and knocked the feathers off of the Baltimore Ravens, a team they had never beaten. They scored the most points in a single game in their franchise history and controlled the game almost from start to finish.
Another that could be in this conversation soon is John Harbaugh of the Ravens. If the Ravens manage to take the North and the second seed in the AFC with the injuries they have piled up, then he very well should be. He probably won’t be, however, because Mike Tomlin was not named coach of the year when he led the Pittsburgh Steelers to a 3-1 record without their starting quarterback, to a 12-4 overall record and to the Super Bowl again in 2010. But, I do not personally see the Ravens keeping the second seed, but just some food for thought.
If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: None yet. It can still be any one of several coaches.
OK, now that we have those predictions out of the way, we want to touch on another prediction that everyone will start making now: which team will go to the Super Bowl and win it all. The NFC is not as much of the jumbled mess right now that the AFC is. There are several teams right at or above .500 that could very well make a late season push, so things are not completely written in stone yet in the AFC. I think the only team that is close to set in stone is the Texans. They're currently the #1 seed, are the most complete team in the AFC and I just do not see them going into any sort of spiral.
So, this is what I like to call my spin on this, or what my partner-in-writing calls “Jaydenisms." We do this a lot when coming up with ideas for our blog, we bounce off each other ideas and then the pieces take life. This one was no different. So, here goes some food for thought, so to speak.
There has not been a team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since the New England Patriots did it in '03 and '04, to find the next team to do it goes back to '97, '98 Broncos. So, to be a repeat champ is even harder than taking it all the first time. There have only been three teams since the 2003 season to represent the AFC and those were the Patriots ('03, '04, '07, and '11), the Colts ('06 and '09) and the Steelers ('05, '08 and '10). We predict that will change this year, but we will touch on that a little later.
The NFC on the other hand has only had one team to make a repeat appearance in that time frame - the New York Giants. Every year since '04 there has been a different NFC team represent the conference. So, the Giants being the current SB champs and representatives of the NFC does not assure them of going to the big dance.
For instance, in 2010 the New Orleans Saints went marching in to Seattle as the reigning champions. They were to play a team that was 7-9 and had won their conference. I'm sure they were thinking that this would be an easy win considering they were 11-5 and, again, the reigning champs. They thought wrong. Marshawn Lynch went Beast Mode on them with a 67-yard touchdown run by mowing down a supposedly good Saints defense. He made them look like a high school defense. Junior varsity. Similarly, last year the Packers, coming off a SB win and a 15-1 record got sent packing despite hosting a 9-7 Giants team on the (in my best John Facenda voice) frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.
Recently, though, the team that gets hot at the right time seems to be the team to take the championship regardless of the conference. Don’t believe me? Look back at who has gone to the SB six of the past seven seasons (Steelers, Colts, Giants, Arizona Cardinals, Packers and Giants). Those teams came from the wildcard rounds and all except one went on to win it all.
So, it really doesn't matter what your record is going in to the playoffs, it matters how you are playing when you get there. Right now, the Falcons are the best team in the NFC right now, but history has shown that it may not matter who has the best record. It is more of one of those “who wants it more” kind of things. Note the examples above.
That gets me to another point: just because a team looks good right now, and has a great record, does not mean they are going to be the team to beat. History has shown that a team with a sub-par early record can get hot late and win it all. Just because a team is sitting at or below .500 does not mean that they are done by any means.
Anything can happen. There are still a lot of games to be played and some of these teams sitting with winning records right now can see that change in a hurry. There are several teams that start out hot and falter second half of the season. Maybe they benefitted from an easy early schedule and then face better opponents late. Maybe they lose key players for the season. Maybe rivals want to play spoiler because they have nothing else left for which to play.
For teams that surge at the end of the season, the reverse could have been the case. Once early-season injuries that had initially set them back are behind them, they suddenly are true contenders. There are lots of things that factor into why.
The teams that stand out to me that are in that boat in the AFC are the San Diego Chargers, Broncos, Steelers and Colts. Those four teams could very well make the playoffs or end another teams playoff dreams, depending on the scenario. All four of these teams have the ability to turn their seasons around they are already on that path and could be spoilers for the ones sitting on top right now. Time will tell, because, again, there is a lot of season left.
So, to end this we are going to make our prediction of who we think will make the Super Bowl this year. It may surprise some people. But, hey, we aren’t known to think inside of the box, now are we?
If It Ain’t Steel's Super Bowl Prediction: Texans vs. Bears
I know, we don't have our Steelers in the big dance. We have a lot of work to do, even after the Giants win. And let’s face it, we're not delusional, we are realistic. The Texans are the best team in the AFC and are going to be hard to put out of the playoffs if they play at home. The Bears are getting it together and quietly demolishing teams. Jay Cutler and crew will be hard to beat the second half of the season.
Trust us, we hope our Steelers prove us wrong, we would love nothing more. And if they do, that is one big helping of crow we will be more than glad to eat.
Starting off, we are going to talk mid-season MVP. The clear cut winner right now has to be Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons. Matty Ice, or the “Matural” as he has been called as of late, has the Falcons sitting at 8-0 and has been playing rather well a fifth year starter. Do we think that he will win the MVP hands down, if it was decided today? Yes, but it's not being decided today, so time will tell. There are some very viable candidates out there who could make a case for having their names mentioned in this discussion.
If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: Peyton Manning
As of right now, the Defensive Player of the Year is clearly J.J. Watt's to lose. He is playing lights out on defense and leads the league in sacks (10.5) and has been batting down passes like a wild man (10...as a DEFENSIVE END). He is helping this Texans defense show why they are to be feared and one of the most complete defenses in the league. Bears cornerback Tim Jennings is making a good case for consideration as well with a league-leading six interceptions, one for a touchdown, and 15 passes defended. Clay Matthews is making a good case, as is Demarcus Ware, but I again say it is Watt's to lose.
If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: J.J. Watt
If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: Peyton Manning
Rookie of the Year is still up for grabs in my opinion. Yes, right now Robert Griffin III is the front runner, but don’t count Andrew Luck out of this race just yet. Luck has been impressive so far in his rookie campaign as well, including setting a single-game rookie record Sunday for passing with 433 yards. He does not have the running yards that RGIII has, but he is playing well and has the Indianapolis Colts already at a better record than they had at this point in the season last year and is slowly making the people of Indy forget about that other guy. Russell Wilson is also playing well, but I believe this one will be a tight two-man race until the end.
If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: Andrew Griffin 1.5
Coach of the Year is a tough one in my opinion. These guys are responsible for what goes on with their teams. If their team is having a bad season, then it is their name that gets tossed around as being on the proverbial hot seat. If the award was given today it would go to Mike Smith. The Falcons are playing perfect ball right now, but won't go undefeated.
Another coach that sticks out to me who should be in the conversation is Gary Kubiak of the Texans. The Texans are 7-1 and playing almost as well as the Falcons. They had one bad game against the Green Bay Packers, but that happens to teams. How did they respond? They came back and knocked the feathers off of the Baltimore Ravens, a team they had never beaten. They scored the most points in a single game in their franchise history and controlled the game almost from start to finish.
Another that could be in this conversation soon is John Harbaugh of the Ravens. If the Ravens manage to take the North and the second seed in the AFC with the injuries they have piled up, then he very well should be. He probably won’t be, however, because Mike Tomlin was not named coach of the year when he led the Pittsburgh Steelers to a 3-1 record without their starting quarterback, to a 12-4 overall record and to the Super Bowl again in 2010. But, I do not personally see the Ravens keeping the second seed, but just some food for thought.
If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: None yet. It can still be any one of several coaches.
OK, now that we have those predictions out of the way, we want to touch on another prediction that everyone will start making now: which team will go to the Super Bowl and win it all. The NFC is not as much of the jumbled mess right now that the AFC is. There are several teams right at or above .500 that could very well make a late season push, so things are not completely written in stone yet in the AFC. I think the only team that is close to set in stone is the Texans. They're currently the #1 seed, are the most complete team in the AFC and I just do not see them going into any sort of spiral.
So, this is what I like to call my spin on this, or what my partner-in-writing calls “Jaydenisms." We do this a lot when coming up with ideas for our blog, we bounce off each other ideas and then the pieces take life. This one was no different. So, here goes some food for thought, so to speak.
There has not been a team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since the New England Patriots did it in '03 and '04, to find the next team to do it goes back to '97, '98 Broncos. So, to be a repeat champ is even harder than taking it all the first time. There have only been three teams since the 2003 season to represent the AFC and those were the Patriots ('03, '04, '07, and '11), the Colts ('06 and '09) and the Steelers ('05, '08 and '10). We predict that will change this year, but we will touch on that a little later.
The NFC on the other hand has only had one team to make a repeat appearance in that time frame - the New York Giants. Every year since '04 there has been a different NFC team represent the conference. So, the Giants being the current SB champs and representatives of the NFC does not assure them of going to the big dance.
For instance, in 2010 the New Orleans Saints went marching in to Seattle as the reigning champions. They were to play a team that was 7-9 and had won their conference. I'm sure they were thinking that this would be an easy win considering they were 11-5 and, again, the reigning champs. They thought wrong. Marshawn Lynch went Beast Mode on them with a 67-yard touchdown run by mowing down a supposedly good Saints defense. He made them look like a high school defense. Junior varsity. Similarly, last year the Packers, coming off a SB win and a 15-1 record got sent packing despite hosting a 9-7 Giants team on the (in my best John Facenda voice) frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.
Recently, though, the team that gets hot at the right time seems to be the team to take the championship regardless of the conference. Don’t believe me? Look back at who has gone to the SB six of the past seven seasons (Steelers, Colts, Giants, Arizona Cardinals, Packers and Giants). Those teams came from the wildcard rounds and all except one went on to win it all.
So, it really doesn't matter what your record is going in to the playoffs, it matters how you are playing when you get there. Right now, the Falcons are the best team in the NFC right now, but history has shown that it may not matter who has the best record. It is more of one of those “who wants it more” kind of things. Note the examples above.
That gets me to another point: just because a team looks good right now, and has a great record, does not mean they are going to be the team to beat. History has shown that a team with a sub-par early record can get hot late and win it all. Just because a team is sitting at or below .500 does not mean that they are done by any means.
Anything can happen. There are still a lot of games to be played and some of these teams sitting with winning records right now can see that change in a hurry. There are several teams that start out hot and falter second half of the season. Maybe they benefitted from an easy early schedule and then face better opponents late. Maybe they lose key players for the season. Maybe rivals want to play spoiler because they have nothing else left for which to play.
For teams that surge at the end of the season, the reverse could have been the case. Once early-season injuries that had initially set them back are behind them, they suddenly are true contenders. There are lots of things that factor into why.
The teams that stand out to me that are in that boat in the AFC are the San Diego Chargers, Broncos, Steelers and Colts. Those four teams could very well make the playoffs or end another teams playoff dreams, depending on the scenario. All four of these teams have the ability to turn their seasons around they are already on that path and could be spoilers for the ones sitting on top right now. Time will tell, because, again, there is a lot of season left.
So, to end this we are going to make our prediction of who we think will make the Super Bowl this year. It may surprise some people. But, hey, we aren’t known to think inside of the box, now are we?
If It Ain’t Steel's Super Bowl Prediction: Texans vs. Bears
Trust us, we hope our Steelers prove us wrong, we would love nothing more. And if they do, that is one big helping of crow we will be more than glad to eat.
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