If It Ain't Steel's NFL Mid-Season Reports And Predictions

The NFL season is at the midway point and we at If It Ain’t Steel are going to throw our predictions out there at the midway point along with some others. Week nine is in the books and we're now at a crucial point for a lot teams. This is the time of year when the cream rises to the top and the men separate themselves from the boys.

Starting off, we are going to talk mid-season MVP. The clear cut winner right now has to be Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons. Matty Ice, or the “Matural” as he has been called as of late, has the Falcons sitting at 8-0 and has been playing rather well a fifth year starter. Do we think that he will win the MVP hands down, if it was decided today? Yes, but it's not being decided today, so time will tell. There are some very viable candidates out there who could make a case for having their names mentioned in this discussion.

One who could emerge from the rubble as the 2012 NFL MVP is "The Sheriff”, Peyton Manning. He is playing extremely well coming of a neck injury (and four neck surgeries) that sidelined him for all of 2011, so I would not stick the fork in him just yet. There is also his little brother Eli who is having a very good season as well. Then there are also ones like Drew Brees, Percy Harvin, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger who are leading for their teams in the right direction. So, as of right now there is no clear cut winner.

If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: Peyton Manning

As of right now, the Defensive Player of the Year is clearly J.J. Watt's to lose. He is playing lights out on defense and leads the league in sacks (10.5) and has been batting down passes like a wild man (10...as a DEFENSIVE END). He is helping this Texans defense show why they are to be feared and one of the most complete defenses in the league. Bears cornerback Tim Jennings is making a good case for consideration as well with a league-leading six interceptions, one for a touchdown, and 15 passes defended. Clay Matthews is making a good case, as is Demarcus Ware, but I again say it is Watt's to lose.

If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: J.J. Watt

Comeback Player of the Year is also Peyton Manning’s to lose. He came back this season under the cloud of “can he play like the Peyton that we are all used to?” It turns out that the answer is a resounding "yes!" He sat out all last season and a lot of people, including myself, thought he would never be the Peyton of old. But, he proved me and a lot of others wrong. He is playing very well and, just like always, is making no-name receivers household names. Adrian Peterson is also a consideration as he leads the NFL in rushing (957 yards) through eight games after missing most of last season with a devastating knee injury. Matt Schaub’s name could also be put into this mix, coming off a foot injury last season and having the Texans poised to take the first seed in the AFC. Time will tell.

If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: Peyton Manning

Rookie of the Year is still up for grabs in my opinion. Yes, right now Robert Griffin III is the front runner, but don’t count Andrew Luck out of this race just yet. Luck has been impressive so far in his rookie campaign as well, including setting a single-game rookie record Sunday for passing with 433 yards. He does not have the running yards that RGIII has, but he is playing well and has the Indianapolis Colts already at a better record than they had at this point in the season last year and is slowly making the people of Indy forget about that other guy. Russell Wilson is also playing well, but I believe this one will be a tight two-man race until the end.

If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: Andrew Griffin 1.5

Coach of the Year is a tough one in my opinion. These guys are responsible for what goes on with their teams. If their team is having a bad season, then it is their name that gets tossed around as being on the proverbial hot seat. If the award was given today it would go to Mike Smith. The Falcons are playing perfect ball right now, but won't go undefeated.

Another coach that sticks out to me who should be in the conversation is Gary Kubiak of the Texans. The Texans are 7-1 and playing almost as well as the Falcons. They had one bad game against the Green Bay Packers, but that happens to teams. How did they respond? They came back and knocked the feathers off of the Baltimore Ravens, a team they had never beaten. They scored the most points in a single game in their franchise history and controlled the game almost from start to finish.

Another that could be in this conversation soon is John Harbaugh of the Ravens. If the Ravens manage to take the North and the second seed in the AFC with the injuries they have piled up, then he very well should be. He probably won’t be, however, because Mike Tomlin was not named coach of the year when he led the Pittsburgh Steelers to a 3-1 record without their starting quarterback, to a 12-4 overall record and to the Super Bowl again in 2010. But, I do not personally see the Ravens keeping the second seed, but just some food for thought.

If It Ain’t Steel's Prediction: None yet. It can still be any one of several coaches.

OK, now that we have those predictions out of the way, we want to touch on another prediction that everyone will start making now: which team will go to the Super Bowl and win it all. The NFC is not as much of the jumbled mess right now that the AFC is. There are several teams right at or above .500 that could very well make a late season push, so things are not completely written in stone yet in the AFC. I think the only team that is close to set in stone is the Texans. They're currently the #1 seed, are the most complete team in the AFC and I just do not see them going into any sort of spiral.

So, this is what I like to call my spin on this, or what my partner-in-writing calls “Jaydenisms." We do this a lot when coming up with ideas for our blog, we bounce off each other ideas and then the pieces take life. This one was no different. So, here goes some food for thought, so to speak.

There has not been a team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since the New England Patriots did it in '03 and '04, to find the next team to do it goes back to '97, '98 Broncos. So, to be a repeat champ is even harder than taking it all the first time. There have only been three teams since the 2003 season to represent the AFC and those were the Patriots ('03, '04, '07, and '11), the Colts ('06 and '09) and the Steelers ('05, '08 and '10). We predict that will change this year, but we will touch on that a little later.

The NFC on the other hand has only had one team to make a repeat appearance in that time frame - the New York Giants. Every year since '04 there has been a different NFC team represent the conference. So, the Giants being the current SB champs and representatives of the NFC does not assure them of going to the big dance.

For instance, in 2010 the New Orleans Saints went marching in to Seattle as the reigning champions. They were to play a team that was 7-9 and had won their conference. I'm sure they were thinking that this would be an easy win considering they were 11-5 and, again, the reigning champs. They thought wrong. Marshawn Lynch went Beast Mode on them with a 67-yard touchdown run by mowing down a supposedly good Saints defense. He made them look like a high school defense. Junior varsity. Similarly, last year the Packers, coming off a SB win and a 15-1 record got sent packing despite hosting a 9-7 Giants team on the (in my best John Facenda voice) frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.

Recently, though, the team that gets hot at the right time seems to be the team to take the championship regardless of the conference. Don’t believe me? Look back at who has gone to the SB six of the past seven seasons (Steelers, Colts, Giants, Arizona Cardinals, Packers and Giants). Those teams came from the wildcard rounds and all except one went on to win it all.

So, it really doesn't matter what your record is going in to the playoffs, it matters how you are playing when you get there. Right now, the Falcons are the best team in the NFC right now, but history has shown that it may not matter who has the best record. It is more of one of those “who wants it more” kind of things. Note the examples above.

That gets me to another point: just because a team looks good right now, and has a great record, does not mean they are going to be the team to beat. History has shown that a team with a sub-par early record can get hot late and win it all. Just because a team is sitting at or below .500 does not mean that they are done by any means.

Anything can happen. There are still a lot of games to be played and some of these teams sitting with winning records right now can see that change in a hurry. There are several teams that start out hot and falter second half of the season. Maybe they benefitted from an easy early schedule and then face better opponents late. Maybe they lose key players for the season. Maybe rivals want to play spoiler because they have nothing else left for which to play.

For teams that surge at the end of the season, the reverse could have been the case. Once early-season injuries that had initially set them back are behind them, they suddenly are true contenders. There are lots of things that factor into why.

The teams that stand out to me that are in that boat in the AFC are the San Diego Chargers, Broncos, Steelers and Colts. Those four teams could very well make the playoffs or end another teams playoff dreams, depending on the scenario. All four of these teams have the ability to turn their seasons around they are already on that path and could be spoilers for the ones sitting on top right now. Time will tell, because, again, there is a lot of season left.

So, to end this we are going to make our prediction of who we think will make the Super Bowl this year. It may surprise some people. But, hey, we aren’t known to think inside of the box, now are we?

If It Ain’t Steel's Super Bowl Prediction: Texans vs. Bears

I know, we don't have our Steelers in the big dance. We have a lot of work to do, even after the Giants win. And let’s face it, we're not delusional, we are realistic. The Texans are the best team in the AFC and are going to be hard to put out of the playoffs if they play at home. The Bears are getting it together and quietly demolishing teams. Jay Cutler and crew will be hard to beat the second half of the season.

Trust us, we hope our Steelers prove us wrong, we would love nothing more. And if they do, that is one big helping of crow we will be more than glad to eat.

Isaac Redman, Max Starks And Players To Watch

"I wasn't sure how my body would react, but I don't feel anything right now. Kind of feel like I never really injured it."

Those words were spoken by the Pittsburgh Steelers running back Isaac Redman after practice on Thursday as he prepared for the third preseason game against the Buffalo Bills. Regarding the game itself, he said further, "I'm anxious to get out there. I want to get out there and play and give it my all."

Redman had to sit out the Steelers second preseason game against the Indianapolis Colts because of a hip injury. Since Redman's health status was unclear and Rashard Mendenhall, who was just removed from the Active PUP list, certainly won't be ready, until now we'd had Dwyer as the starter not only in Buffalo, but in Denver on September 9th also. Looks like that might not be the case after all.

Nonetheless, Redman has seen little action this preseason. He was in for 11 plays in the first preseason game against the Eagles and carried the ball just five times for 14 yards. He also caught a pass for five yards on the first play of the game.

So, Redman will play Saturday night in Buffalo, but what's unknown is how much. Tomlin has stated that the starters will play at least the first half, maybe more. Since Jason Ford, who has a hamstring strain, won't make the trip, the carries will be divided between Redman, Jonathan Dwyer, Baron Batch and Chris Rainey. 

Per Mike Tomlin on Thursday, the inactive list for Saturday will consist of Ford, James Harrison, Mendenhall and Stevenson Sylvester. Hampton is traveling with the team, but is unlikely to play. None of the others will even make the trip. As a matter of fact, Mendenhall says he has no timetable at all yet on his eventual return.

“To be real, I don’t know when I’ll be ready to play,” said the running back who injured his right ACL in the 2011 regular-season finale at Cleveland. “I’m just working with the training staff and doing what I can to get on the field.”

Unlike most recovering from ACL injuries, Mendy downplays the mental hurdles involved: "Theres a physical difference, and once that's gone, I'll be able to play."

Regardless, that timetable he doesn't know about? Don't expect him back before the bye.

Max Starks will also start against Buffalo. Whether he plays for a quarter or a half is unknown, since he nor the coaches wants to overdue it. Tomlin, expressively forthcoming as always simply said, "Our intentions are to let him play."

Tomlin also said it's unlikely that fourth-string quarterback Jerrod Johnson, who seemed a little more comfortable his second time out, will play against the Bills. Though, Tomlin didn't make a determination who the 2nd QB is yet, I would expect to see Byron Leftwich before Charlie Batch this time. 

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PLAYERS TO WATCH in Saturday's preseason game against the Bills: 

DAVID GILREATH is consistently good in short area quickness and burst. He's still trying to earn a spot on this roster, but should be considered the frontrunner for the fifth wide receiver spot.

CHRIS CARTER is taking advantage of a golden opportunity and is "improving daily." With Harrison still ailing, look for him to stake a claim for the starting right outside linebacker position (with a solid performance over Cordy Glenn Saturday) against the Broncos to start the season.

JUSTIN PEELLE is a tight end who has played fullback and was brought in to replace the Steelers' David Johnson who was a tight end who had played fullback. Someone needs to be able backup WVU product Will Johnson and still play TE as well. 

MORTTY IVY, another WVU product, may just find a way onto the roster this year considering all the injuries to the position. If he has another solid game and can hold off Adrian Robinson, he just might do it this time. Though, both could make the initial 53-man roster with the aforementioned injuries being an issue. 

AL WOODS and CORBIN BRYANT are battling for the same position and one has to go. Woods had the big interception that he took about 50 yards into the red zone. It must've taken a lot out of him because Bryant received the majority of the snaps in the second game. Who'll step up Saturday?

Is It Time To Draft Ben Roethlisberger's Replacement?

"Sure, absolutely we would [draft a quarterback]. We aren't going to take a quarterback in the first round, but beyond that I would never close the door."

Those words were spoken by Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert at the NFL Annual Meetings back on March 26, 2012 regarding whether or not it's time to look at drafting a viable backup. That may now be in the process of being answered.

On Tuesday, April 3rd, Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reported that new Colts and former Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians wants the team to sign unrestricted free agent Byron Leftwich as a backup quarterback. Obviously the thought being that he knows Arians offense and could also tutor Andrew Luck.

Leftwich, an unrestricted free agent, spent three years together with Arians as player and assistant coach. He has yet to be offered a contract by the Steelers, though they have expressed interest in keeping him around as Ben Roethlisberger’s backup. ~ http://t.co/QJHWfplp

  
If the Colts were to be able to entice Leftwich away, that would create a major gap at quarterback behind Big Ben. Then those words spoken by Colbert that opened this article would carry even more weight.

Just as weighty and interesting would be the words spoken by Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. Asked about whether drafting a quarterback this year would be too soon or not, Tomlin said: "We're interested in acquiring a young quarterback in some form or fashion. I think that's why we signed the guys we're working with in the offseason coming up here in a few weeks in  Jerrod Johnson and Troy Smith. But we could add to that via the draft or free agency."

Tomlin continued, "We're going through that right now from a preparation standpoint. And that's something that we look to do, in terms of globally or long-term."

In other words, organizationally the Steelers realize that they need to be prepared. I'm not a doomsayer, just considering possibilities. Because, simply put, no one can predict the future. So, just in case Roethlisberger goes down and isn't able to be John Wayne, but instead is a "dead Indian in [a] cowboy movie", the Steelers need to be prepared.

As part of that preparation, Tomlin spoke of two players signed to Futures contracts: Jerrod Johnson, signed 1/13/2012, and Troy Smith, signed 1/20/2012.

Neither is exactly going to make people clamor for being put in a game. Usually the most popular player on the team is the backup quarterback. Not in this case.

Johnson, a former Texas A&M Aggie, will be nothing more than a Training Camp body and Troy Smith...well, he had a good career at Ohio St. At 6'0" 218 lbs., he's not built for the NFL at quarterback. While there are NFL quarterbacks who are his approximate weight, he's too short to play behind offensive linemen who are all taller than he is. He was the pride of UFL's Omaha Nighthawks last year for a reason.

The other quarterback we currently know about is beloved veteran, and AARP card holder, Charlie Batch. Batch's particulars don't need to be rehashed anymore. We know what he brings to the table. What he's done when filling in for Big Ben the last two years says enough. He's a coach in the locker room, on the sidelines and, when he does get into games, on the field. But he can't be expected to come in and take the reins long-term if Big Ben were to be gone for an extended portion of the season. (For more on Batch, go to the blog post, "Charlie: The Best Of The Batch")

So, that means that looking for that viable backup, unless I'm forgetting a feasible free agent QB, might just mean looking to the draft.

One name I've heard suggested is University of Houston product Case Keenum.

Case Keenum is by definition a system quarterback. He's undersized, lacks an NFL-size arm and plays mainly out of the shotgun. Yet, he is accurate and does have instincts enough to keep his eyes downfield while under duress. In fact, Keenum is actually very poised in the pocket. He has the feet to buy time and puts a nice touch on his throws when he’s off balance.

It's feast or famine with Keenum: what allows him to make big plays can also lead him to make remarkably dumb decisions. Sound familiar?

Keenum may have the skill set, but just doesn’t have the size to handle the poundings he'd take in NFL, and especially the AFC North.

Another possible draft consideration might just be someone suggested by Vincenzo Landino of www.MySteelerNation.com - Brandon Weeden.

I disregarded the notion at first, but relented as I gave it more thought. Weeden is NFL-sized, has a big arm and is tough. He would work well in the short-term as well as the long-term should something go awry.

Weeden positively sticks throws into tight windows, throws to the spot instead of the receiver on slants and shows necessary touch on fade routes. He's a tough player too: he played most of the 2010 season with a ruptured tendon in the thumb on his throwing hand. Described as a leader on the field and in the locker room as well.

Naturally, there are negatives too. Weeden is already 28 years old, can have a problem with recognizing the blitz, has the tendency to force throws and has a history of injuries. For a certainty this will be noted by scouts. He certainly has the arm strength, size and requisite intangibles teams look for, but I wouldn't be surprised if he dropped to the bottom half of the draft because of those aforementioned negatives.

If he does, might the Steelers take a chance on him? Kevin Colbert has already answered that question: "If that happens at any position you have to be prepared to deal with it."

So, maybe Vincenzo Landino was on to something. He did make a good point when he said: "You can't say never. We do need a solid backup, though, so that we don't have to change the whole offense if Ben gets hurt.”

Whether he "tweaks" his game to a significant degree or not, Ben could of course fall victim to injury. So, it's a good thing Colbert isn't closing that door, we may need it open as early as this April 28th.

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For more of Vincenzo's ideas, articles and great research, follow his Steelers website, www.mysteelernation.com, or follow him on his Twitter account, @vincenzolandino.

Ben Needs To Go

I grabbed your attention with that title, didn't I?  The reason I say Ben Roethlisberger needs to go is not the reason you may think and not the Ben I think needs to go. All will become apparent.  

Opening Sunday against the Ravens, and again against the Colts, made me really think what I have been thinking for some time: the media is ruining my quarterback. I started seeing it last season at the Super Bowl. Last off season all we heard was about Ben's bad behavior and 'Ben is a douche' and things of that nature.  His teammates hated him, the fans hated him, the list goes on. Well I, as a Big Ben fan, supported him and did not buy into the media bull that Ben was a bad guy. I looked at it as Ben being human and humans make mistakes. He was faced with a lot of obstacles and he overcame them and become a better person for it.   Love the new and improved off season and the off field Ben. But that is not the Ben I love on the field.  

The media before this past Sundays game had been singing the praise of Ben and even dropped the word "elite" and "one of the best." But I have always thought that, even when the media was bashing him for his style of play. Look, lets face facts: Ben rarely has the sexy fantasy stats. But Ben has something that set him apart from other QBs, he has heart and he has a drive that willed him to win. He can take a blown up play and turn it into a big play. Usually. The guy I saw was a man trying too hard to be the hero and to save the day, only to have it bite him in the end against the Ravens and almost again against the Colts. That was not the Ben that I expect to see on the field, that I love to see on the field. He keeps trying to do it on his own, but he can't.

So what I am getting at is that "Gentle Ben" needs to go. The guy that does and says all the right things and plays the way the media and fantasy players think football should be played.  

Ben came back last season from all of this and played what I felt was his best football to date. He played with a purpose and played well. Yes, in '07 he had a great statistical year, but stats don't win championships.  "Big Ben" does. But then when he played lights out in the playoffs and helped the Steelers to another SB championship, the media machine reared its ugly head again and dredged up all the past off seasons' problems and even made a big to do about him being out with his teammates. That again falls back to him being a human being who is entitled to have a life outside of football. That was when I first saw the emergence of Gentle Ben.  

That is why I want Big Ben back. The Steelers need Big Ben back. You know, that bad ass on the field who could care less about style points and pretty plays. The Big Ben that had that arrogance to him and the rebel side to him on the field. The one that held onto the ball a little too long and, if a play broke down, that made the big play that people talked about. No, it wasn't always pretty, but it worked. That Ben did not care about stats and things of that nature. All he cared about was winning-winning championships and Super Bowls.  

Big Ben did not care what the media or anyone else thought. Big Ben just did his thing on the field and was great at it. Big Ben kept his private life to himself and didn't care what the fans or media thought because it was his life, not theirs. Some fans just need to realize that even though he plays for the Steelers, when he walks out of that locker room and gets into his car, then he is just Ben. That is the Ben he corrected and I applaud him for it. But the guy under center didn't need correcting.
  
Yes, I know Ben had his struggles because of the Big Ben persona, and almost lost things that were important to him because of it. But he matured. I just don't want his style of play to be ruined because of it as well. That would be a travesty. While I know it is one of those "damned if you do and damned if you don't"  kind of things, but it needs to happen. 

So my solution is for Gentle Ben to stay off the field, but please bring Big Ben back on the field. That is the Ben I want to see. Yes, he still needs to be the man he promised to be and he has been so far. The more mature Ben. But leave that guy at home. When he gets in his car and pulls into the parking lot of Heinz field or gets off the bus to an away game, he needs to get his "Big Ben" on. I know he is still in there somewhere, and I for one, and I know others will agree, I hope he makes his appearance soon. Because I miss that guy.